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Will motion picture film survive the current situation?


Malcolm Ian Vu

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1 hour ago, AJ Young said:

Virtual production will get easier because current digital cameras already have the capability to record gyroscopic and easily fit into the system's workflow.

The original URSA Mini was going to have a gyroscope in it! A pity that didn't happen. Maybe one day Blackmagic will release a new camera with a gyroscope built in. 

https://web.archive.org/web/20150422221038/https://www.redsharknews.com/production/item/2526-the-ursa-minis%E2%80%99-best-kept-secret

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Damn shame, but if you've got the ingenuity, you can use VR controllers or a phone to record the camera's position in the virtual environment. (Matt did that with his Ursa and HTC controllers)

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Film shoots are starting again in Germany & also in some of our scandinavian Neigbours. Germany has regulations of max 50 People, Face Masks & as much distance as possible right now.

Two of our Film Labs starts operating again since this Week.

I´ve a planned Film Project to be shot on 35mm sheduled for June/July.

 

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On 4/29/2020 at 12:38 AM, AJ Young said:

Film won't go away ... The unbelievable developments in Unreal Engine will push the industry to more productions that integrate real-time virtual production ...

As I often state, I'm not a pro but I do dabble a bit in 'film' filmmaking and have lately been getting into some digital camerawork for my job. As an outsider looking at the film industry, and someone who is really interested in the survival of film, I'm starting to wonder if a picture is emerging of the feature film industry and where it could possibly be headed worldwide. Regarding film and digital, I'm wondering if things are heading the way with the cameras and technology that digital and film will soon start to go into somewhat divergent paths. Digital seems to be headed for ever-more incredible definition, 4K, then 6, and so on. Digital cinematographers seem to be really embracing what they see as the true qualities of the look of digital. For a while it looked like cinematographers were really seeking a 'film' look with digital cinematography in feature film making.

Yet real film is tenaciously still there, big time, in the industry. Now we're starting to see a real push from younger filmmakers and younger audiences for real-time and virtual production ... stuff I'm not interested in. I think the 'traditional' concept of a what an 'old-fashioned' movie experience is,  where you've got a traditional narrative fictional work of about 90 or more minutes presented with the usual conventions of cinema/theatre, and with a 'film look' - I think this will survive as an entertainment medium and audiences (perhaps from here on in older audiences) will keep paying to go and see these movies.

Other entertainment possibilities will start to appear in cinemas and in home theatre or whatever - maybe they already have but I'm just not into it. All that super-glitzy digital whizz-bang 6K virtual stuff doesn't really interest me. I suppose it could potentially, but really, what is a feature movie as we traditionally know it. Basically, it's a novel. It's a filmed version of the 19th century concept of the novel.

I will cut to my point. If traditional 'movies' are going to survive at the cinema, in the sense that we've always really known and understood what a cinema release feature is, I think this could mean that celluloid film will grow in demand for this (perhaps in the future an increasingly 'niche' market). Anyway, just my musings. My two cents. Had some time to spare so typed out my thoughts.

Digital will grow in strength for just about everything, virtual, documentaries, mostly everything made for TV, Corporate stuff etc etc etc. It will become increasingly impressive for what digital does best. But the better the exhibition media become (projectors, TV screens, tablets, and so on) the better celluloid film is starting to look, in my opinion. Anyway, it might be that feature films (that can afford the luxury of real film) might, just like the industry went to wide screen to attract audiences back into the theaters, will increasingly be shot on film as a way to distinguish such productions from this increasing 'look' of digital that so many people now are chasing and really liking. Of course cinematographers will still seek to emulate real film on their digital productions, too. That will continue. I just see the stock of real film rising. That's all I'm saying. I'm usually good at picking trends. I mightn't be right in this instance. But it's an interesting thought. I don't see real film disappearing any time soon. As I keep saying, is is so good at what it can do and the love affair with it is not diminishing over time.

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31 minutes ago, Jon O'Brien said:

I don't see real film disappearing any time soon. As I keep saying, is is so good at what it can do and the love affair with it is not diminishing over time.

Covid-19 is slowly starting to change the dynamic of the film industry. Today it was announced that Universal's plan to release their features on streaming platforms at the same time as theatrical, will be met by no theatrical deal from the two largest theater companies in the world. The profits on web streaming vs theatrical are slowly starting to shift the market. Now an entire family can watch a new first run movie at home for $19.99, instead of trekking to the theater. This is the first time in history, a major studio has decided to go this way with ALL releases and we'll see how it goes. If it's a success, (which I believe it will be) others will follow suit and the theater chains will have too much first run competition. 

My concern is that theater chains will cease to exist as they did before Covid-19. We'll probably see a decline in the amount of cinemas and what's being shown on the screens as studio's and cinemas a like, will be scrambling to find the sweet spot financially. Will "film" be even part of this discussion or will studio's finally have an excuse to pull the preverbal plug on anyone who wants to shoot and distribute on film? 

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https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/how-1918-flu-halted-hollywood-1286640

Me and also many Friends of mine, not just Filmmakers really missing the Cinema.

And i mean the Cinema not a homemade Netflix "Cinema" with just a good Projector and some Dolby. There is a beautiful culture behind it as well. And im pretty sure, cinema as theatres will stay alive and come back - like hugging, kissing and many other important social gathering things. But until then, we will respect the situation and wants to stay healthy. So far we just had some weeks - and it looks right now in the end it will maybe just some month of our planet is slowing down. Im fine with that. Take care!

Edited by Philip Reinhold
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22 hours ago, Tyler Purcell said:

... My concern is that theater chains will cease to exist as they did before Covid-19 ... We'll probably see a decline in the amount of cinemas ...

 

13 hours ago, Philip Reinhold said:

Me and also many Friends of mine, not just Filmmakers really missing the Cinema.

... There is a beautiful culture behind it as well. And im pretty sure, cinema as theatres will stay alive and come back - like hugging, kissing and many other important social gathering things ...

I'm certain that cinemas will still be around. Yes, some or even many of them might close never to return and much of the general populace might decide to stream latest release features straight to their homes, but there will be a few cinemas (at the very least) that will survive. It's the same thing really as plays on the stage, orchestra concert hall concerts, all that type of thing. That will all bounce back. Some people talk about a new world order and how things have changed forever. That's not what's happening here. In fact cinemas might find that, yes, that's exactly right they can't compete with online streaming platforms direct from the studios and will embrace retro type experiences to attract patrons. Now just where did my good buddy Rob say he had those eight 70/35mm cinema projectors and other gear stashed in his shed, somewhere out in the country?

Sure, if it happens it will happen in a small way, and it will never go back to what it once was. But who cares. People who love going to the cinema will still be able to do it with, alongside other people who feel the same way. Same thing as where even today people can enjoy going to see an opera or Shakespeare play on the stage alongside audience who love the productions just as much. And the company manages to economically survive. This is not the end of the world as we know it.

And real film will survive.

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22 hours ago, Jon O'Brien said:

I'm certain that cinemas will still be around.

Well yes and I didn't mention "theaters", I mentioned "theater chains". There will always be cities with theaters, but when the rural area theaters start to close down, like they have in the past, the cinema experience will slowly disappear even more than it already had been. My fear is that we lose the average person's ability to experience movies in the cinema, thus they will be forced to watch content at home more than ever before. 

What Covid has shown is that not very many people are willing to pay $20 to see a first run movie at home. With that said, it HAS shown us that if theaters didn't exist, there is A LOT of money to be had in streaming services. It's a hop skip and jump for the studio's to make lower budget shows and make them available on streaming platforms only, which means "cinemas" will be reserved for the city folk with money. 

My concern is that the democracy of cinema will die and thus, the theatrical experience will be irreparably damaged forever. 

For the record, I'm a theatrical advocate. I believe "video" releases of movies doesn't make enough money to warrant doing EVERYTHING anymore. The tent pole films should only be available at the cinema, no home video, no streaming, nothing. If you want to see them, you have to experience them at cinemas. 

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Actually, the quarantine is showing how successful PVOD is for studios: https://www.wsj.com/articles/trolls-world-tour-breaks-digital-records-and-charts-a-new-path-for-hollywood-11588066202. Trolls World Tour has been rented 5 million times and so far grossed $100 million in three weeks, far more than it's predecessor, Trolls, earned over five months.

Universal has decided to release select films as PVOD (also known as Day and Date release): https://www.indiewire.com/2020/04/universal-vod-releases-trolls-world-tour-success-1202227793/

This could create a domino effect, so the two biggest movie chains drew a line in the sand (AMC and Regal): https://www.indiewire.com/2020/04/amc-universal-movies-ban-1202228026/?fbclid=IwAR0Vj5ezPM-cpV49AGjjgWJQPvTIESwWDryCX0PP0xZ6ezDhEOqCmN4cXh4 They've banned Universal movies. The last time theatres did this was, ironically, with Universal when they experimented with a shorter release window for Tower Heist. At the time, Universal backed off. Now, however, there's data to prove that PVOD is profitable.

Will this destroy movie theatres? No! They'll still be around, but they'll begin to offer services and experiences that you can't get at home (ie Tenet, Avatar, etc). Tent Pole films will still be a huge draw and studios would prefer to double dip on audiences for ticket sales and VOD rentals. Even Universal would do this.

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My opinions:

  • Universal is an easy target for AMC/Regal. It's a different story with WB or Disney who historically have a larger market share of the box office.
  • Someone will blink and this time it may be the theatres
  • AMC is actually in an excellent position to profit of PVOD because they already have their own streaming service. Combine this streaming service with their theatre subscription service and they actually could profit from this all.
  • I managed a movie theatre for 6 years and I've always said that theatres need to offer more than 4K projection and amazing sound. Alamo Drafthouse is a fantastic example of a theatre that offers more.
  • Theatres will not go away, but they will become more like sports games. Sure, you can watch the game on TV for free, but people still love going to the movies. Even Universal knows this: "researchers at Universal found 51% of people who rented ‘Trolls World Tour’ said they would have ‘definitely’ seen the movie in theaters. About one-fifth said they rarely or never rent movies from digital services" ~ From the above Wall Street Journal article
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*Cut to 2025 where all movie theaters are drive in* 

Hey, it's possible, after all history repeats itself. However, extremely unlikely unless there were some post 9/11 security measures as with everything in the twenty first century.

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9 minutes ago, Matthew J. Walker said:

*Cut to 2025 where all movie theaters are drive in* 

Hey, it's possible, after all history repeats itself. However, extremely unlikely unless there were some post 9/11 security measures as with everything in the twenty first century.

But why when you can watch the movie at home? 

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22 minutes ago, Tyler Purcell said:

But why when you can watch the movie at home? 

The last thing I'm going to want to do when our current health situation is over is stay at home ?. On a serious note that's only me and your point is a simple but valid point if you look at the direction society is moving. We'll have to see I suppose. After all things only get more etxtreme as time goes on and that also applies for the entertainment industry/show-business. Hell, what do you think a caveman would think of a skinny, albino, hairless, person who has no nails? Some millions of years and I bet that's what we all look like. Look at movies, fashion, language, you name it, it's all gotten more unpredictable and I personally, I want to stress personally, believe that everything is going In the direction of at home entertainment, especially with the progression of hologram technology and so forth. Gee, now that I've read my paragraph I better stop writing. I'm starting to sound like one of those crazy conspiracy people. Noooooooooo!

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4 hours ago, Matthew J. Walker said:

The last thing I'm going to want to do when our current health situation is over is stay at home ? ... I ... believe that everything is going In the direction of at home entertainment, especially with the progression of hologram technology ...

Exactly! Some people just love going out. Some people like staying home.

I find it quite amusing, in a way (and not amusing in other ways) how those sci-fi movies I used to watch in the 70s, some of them, were almost a bit prophetic. The way society is going in some ways reminds of the 70s movie 'Logan's Run'.

Holograms, instant entertainment in everyone's homes, computers and computer geeks running the place, amazing focus on looks and fake beauty, everyone cooped-up indoors, a soft at the same time callous nanny state (though, those 'sandmen' in Logan's Run are pretty cool with their nifty blue-muzzle-flare guns with magnesium-flash bullet hits... wow, did I just write that, I should be in practical vfx) .... and all the while the sun shining outdoors, clean as a whistle, and people don't go out into it and smell the roses.

It's all good.

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Netflix/ HBO / Amazon etc are the Wal Mart of the film industry ..and studios and cinema chains are the Main Street ..that is in trouble.. Streaming companies  will control production to distribution.. there are still some Ma & Pa shops around .. = Indie films .. anything actually shot on film , boutique cinemas .. probably have to serve food and have a bar .. this virus is just speeding up the time frame by 11..

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6 hours ago, Robin R Probyn said:

.. some Ma & Pa shops around .. = Indie films .. anything actually shot on film , boutique cinemas .. probably have to serve food and have a bar .. 

I will personally put on the ice-cream guy's hat, serve behind the counter, pour drinks, chat with the chatty couple with the lady in the small black dress, serve cocktails from the bar, then whip into the projectionist's booth and lace up the projector and press run. We can do this.

Edited by Jon O'Brien
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