Is YouTube doomed?

[Serge Teulon]

You tube has been a phenomenon in what it has achieved. I still don't use it to its full potential, which I only realise when I visit my much younger brother.

But in terms of quality I'm always impressed by vimeo. The image looks great on there!

 

For ppl who might think that I'm about to make a stand for film, I'm not.

I am primarily a film lover but I'm not against shooting digital.

 

The thing that cheeses me the most about our industry, is that we have allowed ourselves to become part of this hunger ball that has been generated by the companies which produce digital cameras. Their marketing ploy is much in the same way that other companies use for other products which target the mass market. Be it selling, burgers, cars, bank accounts...whatever.

I honestly sometimes feel insulted....our industry is a specialised environment or have I just spent all these years swimming upstream for something that is being looked upon in the same way as a standard car?

We're not the bog standard motor vehicle that joe bloggs drives....we are the equivolent of the Formula 1!! are we not????? :huh:

 

If the Sony's, Red's etc etc...really cared about providing our industry with a great alternative then why not concentrate in creating and perfecting what we want!?

But no their tact is, 'lets hype up the market with all the "This is the best thing since sliced bread, better resolution, cheaper output etc..marketing" and create a line of several different cameras, which will become obsolete in 18 months, so that we can make poop loads of money.'

I completely understand that that is business.....but why oh why do we have bite the hook all the time?!

 

As an example, look at Glaxo Smithkline, they have the knowledge to create a drug that, for example, can cure the flu. But there is no money to be made from curing the flu. The money is made in curing the symptom!!

 

End of rant. :mellow:

Edited April 21, 2009 by Serge Teulon

[Tom Lowe]

No wonder Jim Jannard of Red Digital Cinema did not want to show up in person at NAB 2009 because now he has to compete with JVC which is demonstrating a prototype that claims to be.....

 

Wow, you're tying to take a dig at Jim Jannard because JVC is putting out a 4K camera? Why do you think JVC is putting out a 4K camera in the first place!?

 

These companies like JVC, Panasonic, Arri, and Sony were all asleep at the wheel until JJ gave them a kick to the ribs.

[Brian Drysdale]

Wow, you're tying to take a dig at Jim Jannard because JVC is putting out a 4K camera? Why do you think JVC is putting out a 4K camera in the first place!?

 

These companies like JVC, Panasonic, Arri, and Sony were all asleep at the wheel until JJ gave them a kick to the ribs.

 

Apparently JVC demonstrated a 4K camera a few years ago - that would be before RED I'd assume.

 

It might be a good idea to start a 4K thread if everyone wants to continue discussing this rather than taking over this Your Tube thread

[Tom Lowe]

Apparently JVC demonstrated a 4K camera a few years ago - that would be before RED I'd assume.

 

I very seriously doubt that. If I recall, Red announced their 4K camera in spring or summer 2006.

[Brian Drysdale]

I very seriously doubt that. If I recall, Red announced their 4K camera in spring or summer 2006.

 

Here's a thread in 2007 about the JVC 4k

http://www.dvinfo.net/conf/archive/index.php/t-97213.html

 

There are references to a 4k earlier camera.

 

The Kinetta was fatally delayed waiting on a 4k chip before the RED announcement was made.

[Tom Lowe]

Here's a thread in 2007 about the JVC 4k

http://www.dvinfo.net/conf/archive/index.php/t-97213.html

 

There are references to a 4k earlier camera.

 

The Kinetta was fatally delayed waiting on a 4k chip before the RED announcement was made.

 

Even their 2007 effort, a year after Red's announcement, was apparently nothing but a box with a lens.

 

These guys were never serious about putting out 4K cinema cameras anytime soon until Jim put his boot up their #ss.

 

I mean, you can say that they had some lame, pixel-shifting "4K" Frankenstein contraption back before 2006, and if that's true, why haven't they come to market with it? I mean, I remember seeing a Jeep Wrangler that ran on 100% electricity and looked like a Halo jeep about 7 years ago. That's all well and wonderful pie in the sky stuff, but if you never bring it to market, what use is it?

[Karel Bata]

But the RED's not actually 4K is it?

 

So, is the JVC one really 4K?

 

And here we are quarreling over whether Aunt Beryl will be able to purchase her dream 4K home cinema in a couple of years... :lol:

I think she might have to wait. :(

[Brian Drysdale]

But the RED's not actually 4K is it?

 

So, is the JVC one really 4K?

 

And here we are quarreling over whether Aunt Beryl will be able to purchase her dream 4K home cinema in a couple of years... :lol:

I think she might have to wait. :(

 

It's all of Bayer... and the other S people threw themselves in all striped up with the P non sonic guys for their 4k jobbies in 2004. Both downsample, the R guys in post and the P non sonic types (nee S) in camera.

 

We could sample Aunt Beryl's cakes instead.

[Thomas James]

As far as live broadcasting is concerned JVC with its 60p capability is having a field day over the Red One. However for digital cinematography Red with its 24p and 30p capability is ideal and the better format for the film look. But remember JVC is not demonstrating its camera for the American Society of Cinematographers but for the National Association of Broadcasters which prefers the 60p 4K video look for live sports, live news, live music, and live dance performances.

[Tom Lowe]

But the real point is that without infrastructure, there is no higher resolution than what we have. You could have a 4k monitor but it will not bring 4k infrastructure. All monitors and projectors of this type are not for consumers but for pro applications. As far as I can see no one has plans for any better infrastructure. Hell, we can't even get stations to properly switch to digital now. As for the internet, the US is ranked 54 in terms of infrastructure and speed so don't think that they are going to build this super highway of fiber anytime soon.

 

Only two days after this post: Red shows off 4K footage at 10 Mb/s bitrate...

 

http://www.reduser.net/forum/showthread.php?t=29384

 

http://www.reduser.net/forum/showthread.php?t=29369

 

Once again, 4K technology prevails over the doubters. How many times are people here going to bet against 4K before finally coming around?

[David Mullen ASC]

You act as if being a doubter is a negative thing. What's wrong with doubt? What's wrong with exercising a critical facility? What's wrong with being cautious?

 

The 4K issue isn't just technical -- I saw the 4K displays at NAB. They looked nice when you stood one-foot away from the screen, yes. But the improvement wasn't dramatic enough to make 4K some sort of popular standard in households, and without that, there is little incentive to deliver 4K to the homes.

 

4K in movie theaters, I don't doubt that will happen eventually. 4K in homes, I'm sorry, I doubt that will happen within the next five years, and after that, I don't really care to guess. Maybe, just maybe, once all these studios have 4K masters, they will offer some sort of download for the few people out there with ways to play 4K footage. But that's a far cry from saying that 4K will become some sort of home entertainment standard.

 

The issue isn't just about technology, it's about demand. It's about the average home viewer deciding that HDTV isn't going to cut it anymore for watching ESPN, whatever.

 

Now one day when there is no separation anymore between home computers and TV broadcast and people have a couple of different screens playing everything coming off of computers and not cable TV or satellite, or blu-ray players, etc. then we can talk about distributors offering different downloadable resolutions of material, including 4K. And that's not an unlikely scenario -- some people do have households set-up that way, and some movies and TV shows are being streamed or downloaded -- but I don't see this as the way most households are set-up within the next five years.

 

So, yes, I doubt 4K is going to become some commonplace household viewing standard, and I doubt that 4K is going to become something that studios are going to deliver movies in to home viewers. Not for at least five years, if not longer. After that it's hard to judge how tastes and technology will keep changing.

 

Besides, it comes back to the other problem -- lack of 4K content. Even at NAB they were scrambling to even find 4K content to show on their 4K monitors.

[Tom Lowe]

David, there won't be a lack of 4K content for long. Hell, these companies at NAB could have contacted me. I have 50 minutes worth of jaw-dropping 4K timelapse footage sitting right here on my PC. Once the DSMC cameras hit the streets, there will be more 4K footage than anyone knows what to do with.

 

I agree that being a skeptic is a good thing, but certain grumps here are going out of their way to say that 4K proponents are preaching "science fiction," which isn't true. It's science fact! ;)

 

While a lot of people are totally freaking out over 4K at 10mbps, I'm not surprised in the least. If you look at compression trends and the general trends of technology, it makes perfect sense, and shouldn't shock anyone.

 

Also, I agree with you that 4K will not become the gold standard for content in regular homes in the next 5 years. My guess would be like 8 years before it really takes off for average families. But I do think that there will be significant use of 4K by many users within 5 years, even sooner! Like I said earlier, not everyone has to wait for the merger of PC and TV. For many of us, it has already happened, or is happening. I have a 47" 1080p screen in the living room, but I watch 90% of my content on my PC or on my laptop on the road. I just barely ever care about live TV anymore, and when I do watch it, it's maybe 10 minutes of live news... or something that I DVR'd to watch later. The merger is already here!! On college campuses, people don't even bother with TVs anymore. They just watch stuff on the computer via download or stream. These are the same kids dropping $7,000 on a new liquid-cooled gaming PC. So you can see where this is headed. And with something like REDray, 4K content will be available with relative ease. The content will almost certainly be internet-distributed.

 

IMO, if Jim is wise he will let other manufacturers build and sell REDray players, PCI cards, and playback/decoding machines, so that the technology will be in place to usurp Bluray when the time comes. I guess the whole decoding thing could be done via software at some point.

 

These are very interesting and exciting times!

[Brian Drysdale]

David, there won't be a lack of 4K content for long. Hell, these companies at NAB could have contacted me. I have 50 minutes worth of jaw-dropping 4K timelapse footage sitting right here on my PC. Once the DSMC cameras hit the streets, there will be more 4K footage than anyone knows what to do with.

 

You'll need a large enough market to make it worthwhile for the manufacturers to make the investment. Their next move won't come until the HDTV market has matured and the next great new thing has to be brought out.

 

I rather suspect the world isn't too concerned at the moment about jaw dropping 4k timelapse, which isn't that new in that DSLRs have been doing that for some time. The world economy is going to slow down demand in quite a few markets. For REDRay to succeed in the large mainstream home entertainment market RED will have to negotiate with the studios if it's going replace Blu Ray, plus the possibility of consumers groaning at yet a new product if they attempt this in the mass market over the next 5 years. This is very different to the professional AV market.

 

An important element for the on line viewing that's currently missing is a revenue stream. Unless providers can financially support the infrastructure, plus have the film/programme production costs covered with a profit 4k streaming will only be a minority technical exercise.

 

I suspect is may be case of diminishing returns for the market, more and resolution v good enough for most people. There will always be people who want the ultimate quality, but they tend to be a niche market.

Edited April 25, 2009 by Brian Drysdale

[K Borowski]

Also, I agree with you that 4K will not become the gold standard for content in regular homes in the next 5 years. My guess would be like 8 years before it really takes off for average families. But I do think that there will be significant use of 4K by many users within 5 years, even sooner!

 

No way Tom. HD will probably not reach the majority of households for TEN years. . .

 

4K maybe might see consumer usage in say 25 years. The average consumer just doesn't need that resolution. Alot of flatscreen owners I know haven't even bothered getting HD. . .

 

BTW, in case you haven't noticed, HDTV is the last thing on most people's minds these days with the worst economic recession since th Great Depression playing out.

Edited April 25, 2009 by Karl Borowski

[Tom Lowe]

You'll need a large enough market to make it worthwhile for the manufacturers to make the investment. Their next move won't come until the HDTV market has matured and the next great new thing has to be brought out.

 

I rather suspect the world isn't too concerned at the moment about jaw dropping 4k timelapse, which isn't that new in that DSLRs have been doing that for some time. The world economy is going to slow down demand in quite a few markets. For REDRay to succeed in the large mainstream home entertainment market RED will have to negotiate with the studios if it's going replace Blu Ray, plus the possibility of consumers groaning at yet a new product if they attempt this in the mass market over the next 5 years. This is very different to the professional AV market.

 

You might think that the world is not concerned with jaw-dropping timelapse and nature footage - and you would be dead wrong. Planet Earth and Sunrise Earth Blurays have been outselling basically everything else in sight. There is a huge, huge, HUGE market for incredible imagery with the maximum possible image quality and resolution.

 

Well the 4K hardware is already in the works and will begin to hit the market sooner than many think. The whole story out of this year's NAB is 4K this, 4K that. Jannard says that REDray 4K player will sell for under $1K and is coming THIS YEAR. As far as people willing to put their content onto a 4K disc or sell it via download (I never said streaming) for 4K distribution, wait until the first episodes of "Planet Earth 4K" become the top 4K sellers, and suddenly everyone wants in on this new market. It wasn't that long ago that barely anyone had the ability to play any kind of 1080p footage of any kind at their house. Fast forward like 3 years and nearly every person I know has a 1080p flatscreen in their living room, and 1080p playing on their computers. It will probably start just like 1080p did. The first 1080p I really remember playing often on my PC were Apple Quicktime Trailers in HD. Same thing will probably happen with 4K trailers.

[Tom Lowe]

No way Tom. HD will probably not reach the majority of households for TEN years. . .

 

4K maybe might see consumer usage in say 25 years. The average consumer just doesn't need that resolution. Alot of flatscreen owners I know haven't even bothered getting HD. . .

 

BTW, in case you haven't noticed, HDTV is the last thing on most people's minds these days with the worst economic recession since th Great Depression playing out.

 

Funny thing, because I just drove by a Costco and saw like 4 people pushing carts with huge new 1080p screens on them.

 

25 years???? HAHHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!

 

We will probably be only a decade or two from the technological Singularity by then! In 25 years, 4K will seem like 8mm!

[Walter Graff]

David, save yourself the trouble. Nothing you say is going to convince this guy of anything. He knows little about how the system works, how consumer sales works, and how manufacturing works. It's all fantasy conjecture based on eyes being glazed over by anything that says RED. Just plain silly. This crap is clogging my mailbox at this point. The pertinent points were made a long time ago. Let's see what happens. End of topic for me.

[K Borowski]

HAHHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!

 

We will probably be only a decade or two from the technological Singularity by then! In 25 years, 4K will seem like 8mm!

 

Thank you for your mature response to my intelligent speculation as to the market's needs.

 

I am not going to read an entry written by a college or high school student on what a "technological singularity" is. Mental masterbation, like other forms, should be a one-person activity. Forgive me for not wanting to "join in."

 

So four people buying HDTVs tells you that more than 90% of American households are going to have them, with HD hooked in, in five years, let alone ten?

[Tom Lowe]

Karl: "Tom, you know the dark side?"

 

Tom: "Karl, if you are to become a real technology predictor, you must embrace a larger view of technology. Learn about the singularity": http://singinst.org

 

Karl: "I'm going to turn you over to the Jedi Council."

 

:lol:

[David Mullen ASC]

Well, we are coming up on the end of analog transmission, and while a tuner box is all you need to convert your TV set, I think many people are going to look at this as an excuse to get a new TV set -- even with the slowdown in the economy, people tend to want cheap entertainment like TV and movies more, so they are willing to invest in that stuff.

 

So I actually believe HDTV will finally "take off" in the next few years, though most people are going to be watching a mix of SD and HD programming on those TV sets.

 

And remember that just as many people seem content watching stuff on iPhones and iPods as they do on 50" LCD screens, with laptops falling somewhere in the middle. Not to mention horribly compressed stuff on You Tube.

 

We're becoming the generation of non-standards, where anything goes, a proliferation of niche markets. So maybe there will be a 4K niche full of gamers and people who want to see nature movies shot in 4K. I just think we need to see HDTV established before we can start predicting the next major trend. Unlike Jim Jannard or Sony, I don't have a lot of incentive to predict a trend that won't happen for several more years -- I just have to live in the present and keep up with trends within an upcoming two-year period. Beyond that and there's no practical value, it's just having fun guessing what the future will be like. It starts to be on the same level of saying "businessmen will fly to work using jet packs."

 

Look at IMAX for example. When it was introduced back in the early 1970's for a World's Fair, I'm sure someone thought "this is the future of movies" and I'm sure someone else thought "IMAX is a dead-end, a one-trick pony, a gimmick". The truth ended up somewhere in the middle -- IMAX did not, overall, have a big impact on feature filmmaking, but on the other hand, it was successful in its own niche (nature docs, etc.) and occasionally it branched out into projects like "The Dark Knight". It proved that there continues to be a small but dedicated audience for hyper-sharp large-screen, immersive presentations. But that audience only ever expands momentarily when that format is coupled with some other popular element, like a Batman movie.

 

So while I can't rule out hyper-resolution formats coming to the masses, I'd say that history has taught us that it tends to fall into a niche business because the larger masses of consumers don't put resolution at the top of their list of "must haves".

[Tom Lowe]

We're becoming the generation of non-standards, where anything goes, a proliferation of niche markets. So maybe there will be a 4K niche full of gamers and people who want to see nature movies shot in 4K. I just think we need to see HDTV established before we can start predicting the next major trend. Unlike Jim Jannard or Sony, I don't have a lot of incentive to predict a trend that won't happen for several more years -- I just have to live in the present and keep up with trends within an upcoming two-year period. Beyond that and there's no practical value, it's just having fun guessing what the future will be like. It starts to be on the same level of saying "businessmen will fly to work using jet packs."

 

Yeah. I think this non-standard environment will help 4K leap around what might otherwise be a traditional, linear move toward the "next generation" of displays. If 4K had to literally get in line behind 1080p, like 1080p had to get in line behind NTSC and DVD, then yes, it would take a very long time, because 1080p itself is only now being adopted. But I think, as you say, it will be more of a technology mashup - a sort of free-for-all - which actually works in favor of the newer, cutting-edge technology having a chance to establish a decent little market and grow from there. One of the main things to consider is that 4K is a very real "ceiling" for most 35mm content, so it makes sense that we are headed in that direction fast. Once 4K gets a foothold, moving beyond it will be tough, because of the legacy issue of 35mm only scanning out to 4K. And it's not just gamers and nature film 4K shows, a lot of us who will be shooting nothing but 4K+ material on our newer cameras will be dying to see it fullscreen. And the entertainment industry has plenty of cash to help fuel the spread of 4K displays.

 

Right now, a lot of Red One 4K shooters are not completely obsessed with viewing their stuff in 4K, because it actually holds up better at 1080p or 2K. But once people start shooting at 6K, they are VERY MUCH going to want to see their stuff displayed at 4K.

Edited April 25, 2009 by Tom Lowe

[K Borowski]

So I actually believe HDTV will finally "take off" in the next few years, though most people are going to be watching a mix of SD and HD programming on those TV sets.

 

[. . .]

 

We're becoming the generation of non-standards, where anything goes, a proliferation of niche markets. So maybe there will be a 4K niche full of gamers and people who want to see nature movies shot in 4K. I just think we need to see HDTV established before we can start predicting the next major trend. Unlike Jim Jannard or Sony, I don't have a lot of incentive to predict a trend that won't happen for several more years -- I just have to live in the present and keep up with trends within an upcoming two-year period. Beyond that and there's no practical value, it's just having fun guessing what the future will be like. It starts to be on the same level of saying "businessmen will fly to work using jet packs."

 

EXACTLY.

 

Let me reiterate though, I'm not saying it'll take 10 years for everyone to get a flat-screen TV. I'm saying that it'll take ten years for everyone to get around to ghetting HD. I've seen some terribly big television sets with some terribly distorted SD video on it.

 

I think it'll take at least five years for HD TVs to become a majority of the market share of TV sets, and ten for HD to be the preferred viewing format by the public at large.

 

 

You also make an interesting point about "the future". It's always glamorized, often in much the same way as the old-timers glamorize the past. But the reality is seldom as glamorous as the fantasies of people like Tom.

 

For Tom, the future, it seems, represents an escape from the monotony, or boredom of the present.

 

Look at the movie "2001: A Space Odyssey" or "2010".

 

So, we should have a spinning space station, talking, sentient computers, I think flying cars, space planes, a moon base, and affordable interplanetary travel.

 

We have a space station (that doesn't have artificial gravity and has been a real money pit). We have personal computers (that are no where near as fun to use as a HAL would be, although I guess our computers are safer (read BORING)). We don't have a space plane, but we have a space shuttle. We don't have any flying cars, because they were developed, but we have been too lazy to find an affordable replacement for gasoline, or devise a way to use flying cars safely.

 

We don't have a moon base or affordable planetary travel, but that is because we've been too busy fighting wars over this planet to bother with colonizing others.

 

 

That's not the fault of the future though. It's the fault of us, the people that are going to live in it. WE are boring.

 

Until men decide to really apply themselves to the present, instead of pining for the past, or hoping for a better future, we will follow the same predictable, boring trends. The future is the same as the present. It's all about the PEOPLE who live in it and how they interact with one another, not the gizmos they use.

[Tom Lowe]

For Tom, the future, it seems, represents an escape from the monotony, or boredom of the present.

 

Well I'm sure you are right in some ways. But, Karl, I am actually out shooting 5.6K RAW footage right now, all the time, and posting-producing and selling it at 4K. I'm not bored with the present, I'm excited about the future!

[Brian Drysdale]

You might think that the world is not concerned with jaw-dropping timelapse and nature footage - and you would be dead wrong. Planet Earth and Sunrise Earth Blurays have been outselling basically everything else in sight. There is a huge, huge, HUGE market for incredible imagery with the maximum possible image quality and resolution.

 

I believe Planet Earth is 1080p rather than 4k. It has been doing well, especially for a documentary series but other films are also up there. Although, I suspect the DVD sales position ( still good but lower)would be more accurate in a fully HD market. You'll also need to convince the BBC to shoot 4k, which could take some time because the budgets are getting squeezed.

 

The increase in resolution only really works if the screen size also increases so the eye can resolve this extra resolution. There hasn't been a huge run to IMAX cinemas I know of some that have closed because the market isn't there in particular locations.

[K Borowski]

But, Karl, I am actually out shooting 5.6K RAW footage right now, all the time, and posting-producing and selling it at 4K.

 

Why?

 

People have been shooting timelapse with pin-registered SLRs (also arguably more than 4K, 6.4K if you assume 8-perf resolves double of 4-perf.) for decades.

 

What I honestly don't understand is why this stuff wasn't "exciting" before it was digital. Was it too hard? Too expensive?

 

5-perf. 70mm, arguably the equivalent resolution of 8K or so, was around in the '60s. Hell, they were shooting boxing matches on 70mm film in the 1890s (granted the resolution wasn't anywhere near what it is today on film in the 1890s). Arguably, the 16mm prints delivered to television stations up until the mid 1980s, although they couldn't be broadcast this way, were HD resolution. Then they brought in Beta. So, we went backwards for twenty years, all in the name of the almighty dollar.

 

I think a REAL revolution won't be a jump in resolution, or a lowered price. That is irrelevant me (not that money isn't a concern of mine. I'm certainly not wealthy by any means).

 

But for me a real revolution isn't a simple democratization of the process, it's a true leap in quality. It's like the car to the horse, or a flying car that can cruise at 400 MPH (640 kph). Imagine commuting to NYC from Chicago every day!

 

So, the next real big leap in film-making will, hopefully, be something equally epic, like true three color 3D holography (but not a gimmick like simulated digital stereo movies. Again, that is a new take on something that was popular in the 1950s, 1900s, and 1850s.). Maybe we'll take it a step further and tap directly into the human mind. A Star Trek episode about simulated memory engrams comes to mind.

 

This digital machine that is out there now is not about brave new realms of imaging, it's about making companies money selling cameras to people who already own cameras. That isn't' advancement, it's depressing, predictable human capitialism.

Edited April 25, 2009 by Karl Borowski