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Phil Rhodes

Out of the EU

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At risk of starting a threat likely to degenerate into politics, it looks like the UK is to leave the EU.

 

I'm not quite sure what impact this is likely to have on film work. Very few European productions shot in the UK because it was always one of the most expensive places in the EU to work. Most of the imported shows are from the US anyway. Conversely, quite a lot of productions claiming UK financial support did actually go and shoot in eastern europe, and this may decline if it becomes more difficult to do that. It may also become more difficult for people to come to the UK to work.

 

To be as mercenary as possible, it looks like pretty good news from where I'm standing. I just hate to be that guy...

 

Please, let's avoid this thread turning into a screaming match.

 

P

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As one of those people who would very much like to live and work in the EU/UK, I am interested to see how this will effect all things.

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As one of those people who would very much like to live and work in the EU/UK, I am interested to see how this will effect all things.

That will now be EU or UK.

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Well EU funding for UK production companies will be out the window .. I shot recently in Germany.. no visa or carnet needed.. straight through EU passport control.. huge lines in "others " passports .. that will all end I guess .. I think it will be a real pain for all the UK crews shooting in the EU.. carnet alone will be that..

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Well EU funding for UK production companies will be out the window

 

No, because the government will of course make that good with all the money we're saving by not being in the EU.

 

Although I guess they might sort of forget a bit.

 

Maybe.

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I'm a UK citizen, so I can chime in. Dumb decision, just plain....DUMB.

 

The pound is already at historic lows today Phil, gee great job on that front. Scottish independence just re-ignited, same for Northern Ireland.

 

And I fail to see how being outside the EU and not having free access to a much bigger market than the UK has will be of economic benefit to the UK? It's just a really bad idea. What happens if the EU decides to cut the import of cars made in the UK by 50%? What then? Just one example.

 

I understand that the vote was driven largely by anger at politicians who give off the impression that they don't listen to the people of the UK, particularly on immigration. But that issue could have logically been solved with the UK staying in the EU.

 

And now my UK passport will only be effective for work in the UK, the rest of Europe will be closed off to me, and every other British citizen.

 

Just a really stupid decision quite frankly.

 

R,

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Well EU funding for UK production companies will be out the window .. I shot recently in Germany.. no visa or carnet needed.. straight through EU passport control.. huge lines in "others " passports .. that will all end I guess .. I think it will be a real pain for all the UK crews shooting in the EU.. carnet alone will be that..

 

Exactly Robin.

 

R,

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The pound is already at historic lows today Phil, gee great job on that front. Scottish independence just re-ignited, same for Northern Ireland.

 

All very unfortunate. I suspect the currency will recover most of its value fairly quickly, although I'm happy to have done so much writing for US publications in the last few months, which is paid in USD!

 

The Scottish separatism thing was always going to come up at some point. My view is that if they want to go they should go and stop whining about it, but nothing good can come of it. The reality is that it's nowhere near affordable - it never was, and that's even more the case now. If they're daft enough to go for it, I'd view that as a great pity and a loss to both parties.

 

And I fail to see how being outside the EU and not having free access to a much bigger market than the UK has will be of economic benefit to the UK?

 

That's what I've started to call the Richard Branson argument, which is that he doesn't want to pay import duty and that he's been "able to become an entrepreneur thanks to Europe." Even if that were true - and it's plenty dubious - that's great for Branson. It has absolutely no impact on me. Everyone knows a rock star, yes? The reason I can't start building and exporting goods is because of the enormous costs of getting set up, and because I'd get crushed by China, which the EU cannot protect anyone from.

 

What happens if the EU decides to cut the import of cars made in the UK by 50%?

 

The EU can't do that, at least not directly. EU-based customers of UK manufacturers could do that, but again, it depends on the deal that emerges. If the deal makes UK products very expensive, it may be quite bad, although we're hardly a world-leading exporter of manufactured goods as it is. Because we've been crushed by China. Which is not an EU state. So what does it matter?

 

I understand that the vote was driven largely by anger at politicians who give off the impression that they don't listen to the people of the UK, particularly on immigration.

Immigration is a sideshow. Immigration from outside the EU is larger than from within it. I agree that this was why the referendum went the way it did, but you could never have made the referendum go the other way by somehow solving immigration, because immigration was never really a serious problem. There are questions to answer about it, but it's always been a sideshow.

And now my UK passport will only be effective for work in the UK, the rest of Europe will be closed off to me, and every other British citizen

If EU membership had facilitated work in places where I speak the language and where there is work I'm interested in, such as Canada, Australia or the USA, I'd agree. It didn't. However, I'm not going to lose much sleep over my inability to go and work in Poland. As I've pointed out before, the language problem makes freedom of movement largely theoretical for most Brits. 51% of EU adults speak English. It is the world's most popular second language. This was always going to make freedom of movement a very one-sided affair and the net effect of ending it is likely to be positive, even if it happens as you describe, which is far from certain.

I am unhappy about the bad feeling, the erosion of trust and cooperation, that the situation provokes. As to the EU itself, it was always built on highly dubious principles, poorly run, lacking in democratic principle and operating way beyond its mandate. The arrogance was breathtaking. Ultimately, I like the bad party metaphor. If you're at a party and the people there clearly dislike you, don't have much in common with you, and if you aren't enjoying the music, you don't sit there and moan about it. You might suggest putting some different music on, but if they still aren't going for it, clearly you're in the wrong place.

At that point, you politely make your excuses and leave.

Edit - well, hang on a second, I didn't say I particularly liked the situation!

P

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First off, the EU is falling apart. The UK was spending quite a bit of money helping them say afloat, helping the whole "system" work, when you have countries like Greece and Spain, who are basically failed states and Italy not far behind. The only superpowers in the EU were Germany, France and UK. Now with the UK pulling out, Germany and France have to do a lot of soul searching. They need to figure their poop out or dissolve it.

 

Economically the EU seems like a great thing, but financially it has two ways to go and unfortunately it's gone the wrong way.

 

Another thing that's gone the wrong way is immigration. This whole cross borders EU passport nonsense, is absolutely stupid. It adds too much bureaucracy to the process of deporting and far less security/scrutiny. It's scary having huge open borders, not knowing exactly who's coming and going. There needs to be FAR more scrutiny on immigration, especially for a smallish country like the UK.

 

I'm probably the only person who is happy with the UK leaving the EU. I'm happy because it gives a message to the rest of the EU states; the grand experiment is in decline. It would be difficult for some of them to leave as they are indebted to the EU for their mere survival. Yet, I think France is on the tipping point from what I read. I bet they are next and if they are, Germany will have no choice because they need the French capitol.

 

In the next 5 years, the EU will most likely collapse. It will be the end of a great dream that was poorly executed and clearly not a great idea.

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Well it will take 10 years at least to look at the numbers and see if it was beneficial or not?

 

If the UK's GDP shrinks and unemployment hits 12%, I'm guessing a lot of people will want a referendum the other way.

 

But now the UK steps into the abyss with a huge amount of uncertainty.

 

If I was a multi-national looking at setting up a business in the UK to make products to export all over Europe, I just crossed the UK off my list of places to locate. How can the UK guarantee that I'll have access to the French and German markets in 3 years? They can't. So now I move my plans to Germany or France.

 

Really not a smart idea at all on the part of the UK.

 

R,

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Yea, well what do you expect? poop is going to hit the fan and as a consequence of the pound being not worth as much, it means what they make will be more affordable to the rest of the world.

 

I don't believe for a second the UK is going to flounder.

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Explain to me why not a single market trader anywhere in the world thought the UK leaving the EU was a good idea? I mean if it was such a great idea, shouldn't the markets have reacted positively to the news?

 

What do traders know, that evidently, no one else does?

 

R,

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it means what they make will be more affordable to the rest of the world.

 

Would you like to see the USD at the same value as the CDN dollar based on your own argument?

 

R,

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I just recall using Carnets whenever I travelled between European countries before the kit became tools of my trade. It was a total pain.

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People in the financial industry have been repeatedly shown to be panicky, idiotic sheep who will arbitrarily decide to crush companies and devalue currencies more or less on a whim. They get richer regardless. I trust them no further than I can throw them and all their gold bars.

 

There is more to life than finance. The markets will recover. They always do. It's just another excuse to bitch and whine and make another few hundred million for oneself. These people are complete tools. They are not experts at anything useful and nor do they deserve anyone's respect.

 

The problem with the EU is its lack of democratic principle and the tendency to massively exceed its mandate. This has nothing to do with finance.

 

P

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Ok well I hope it works out. Mathematically I can't see how it will work?

 

Look at the UK population, vs the European continent. The math simply doesn't add up.

 

R,

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In addition to financial perspective, there is the historical as well: European Union was founded to build European stability through commerce and to keep history from repeating itself -- you know, Napoleon, WW1, WW2. In the heart of those conflicts usually were France and Germany on the opposing sides.

 

Hoping for the collapse of EU is pretty much the same as hoping for the Texas and some other states of US to seek independence. Sure, there are people who think it'd be great -- but in reality only chaos and lack of stability would follow.

 

At the moment Europe needs neither.

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The problem with the EU is its lack of democratic principle and the tendency to massively exceed its mandate. This has nothing to do with finance.

 

P

 

I suspect the UK will have to take up many EU Mandates if it wishes to have free trade with the the EU, these will more than likely include industrial standards and a form of free movement of labour which may not be as open as at present, but will be more than what some Brexit people have said would be the case.

Edited by Brian Drysdale

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Ok well I hope it works out. Mathematically I can't see how it will work?

Look at the UK population, vs the European continent. The math simply doesn't add up.

I honestly don't expect it will; I expect it'll be utterly miserable.

I think it's probably possible to have things go reasonably well - the example most often given is that of New Zealand, which famously didn't become part of Australia, operates independently, and is now, well, an entirely lovely place to live. Even Australia itself has a microscopic population compared to the UK, and is also an entirely lovely place to live if you can survive the wildlife. My confidence in modern politicians to actually make the most of the situation is near zero, however, and I suspect the situation will be quite bad. The operative point is whether it's better than it would have been otherwise. We'll never know.

The suggestion that a failure of the EU would provoke a return to the bad old days of land war in Europe seems to me to be reaching a bit. Well, a lot. Ultimately any change can be talked down as lack of stability. The situation with the EU was horrible. The future for the UK was horrible anyway, and I'm not sure it's been made much more horrible by this.

Beyond anything else, I can only refer back to the bad-party analogy. The UK was always sitting on the periphery of Europe, complaining. Most of the other EU governments found UK intransigence very trying, probably quite reasonably. There was often no love lost between various EU states and the UK, and they really don't need us. The only motivation anyone had for wanting the UK in the EU was that it was (and for a while will be) a net financial contributor. Otherwise, we were about as popular as a fart in a decompression chamber, and I'm really not sure what all the griping is about.

P

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I suspect the UK will have to take up many EU Mandates if it wishes to have free trade with the the EU, these will more than likely include industrial standards and a form of free movement of labour which may not be as open as at present, but will be more than what some Brexit people have said would be the case.

 

Yes, I think that's very likely.

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The UK was always sitting on the periphery of Europe, complaining.

 

I do agree that there will be those in Brussels saying, good bye and good riddance!

 

The idea that this will only result in positives is a falsehood though. The campaign tactics used by the Leave Campaign famously mirror those used by the separatists in Quebec who have so far had, and lost, two referendums on leaving Canada.

 

The "separatists" must always promise....you can have your cake and eat it to. If they want to win.

 

R,

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I don't think anyone's seriously proposing that it'll be only positives. I think it'll be absolutely miserable. There was a point of principle at stake, though I fully accept that most of the people who voted for leaving did so out of rather baser motives.

 

P

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