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How long do you think we're gonna be unemployed?


Frank Hegyi

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34 minutes ago, David Mullen ASC said:

Whether this is a good thing or not, almost everyone is in the same boat. There are hardly any industries not affected.  Freelancers or steady full-time workers, either may or may not be living paycheck to paycheck. (Of course, it's not a good thing but I just mean that it's not just one or two groups being affected and thus perhaps would be ignored.)

OK, it's time for a break -- I have to go back to watching my box set of blu-rays for "Space: 1999"...

I agree with you, David! Money be damned, safety is paramount.

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1 minute ago, AJ Young said:

I agree with you, David! Money be damned, safety is paramount.

Yep health is always the most important thing but if people can't make a living there are going to be even more widespread problems. Pretty much universal I'd imagine, to some extent (unless we're talking about the mega rich living on personal islands or something). At some point I think public opinion might move towards ending the lockdown approach.

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I think the damage to the economy has already been done. Here are my reasons from earlier: 

In my opinion (and those of scientists, economists, and epidemiologists), there will be far more economic damage if the lockdown ends too early. We're doomed either way, so let's pick the option that saves lives.

 

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2 hours ago, Richard Boddington said:

I find it somewhat amusing listening to the CA governor keep issuing stricter and stricter orders for people to stay home.  What is LA's 60, 000 homeless people supposed to do?  I know they are exempt, but even that is comical in a way....go to your house, if you have one.

They're supposedly going to be moving them into temporary homes in hotels. 

2 hours ago, Richard Boddington said:

I am still shaking from what I saw in LA from my week long visit there in December of last year.  The homeless situation is beyond describable, three levels of government have just thrown up their hands and said, *bleep* it we give up!

 I worked on a documentary about LA homelessness, we shot for 2 years all over Santa Monica, Venice, skid row, I'd say 60% of the people we talked to, were normal people who came on hard times. I wish we could release it to the public, but due to some legal issues, we never finished. It was eye opening because I always thought they were convicts or mental health patients, but no... most had no reason to be unemployed. The problem really comes down to how strict hiring is in Los Angeles, companies simply won't hire people who don't have legal residences. 

2 hours ago, Richard Boddington said:

It may simply be something we need to live with and accept that some people will die.  Just like tens of thousands of people die every flu season. 

There is more to this than meets the eye. Reality is this financial crisis is far more of a problem and it was going to happen no matter what. The debt to income ratio of not just American's, but nearly the entirety of the major metropolitan areas is off the hook. Everyone has crazy debt and that is catching up to people very slowly. The banks have allowed this debt to take hold, especially in the wake of the last economic downturn. So we are going back to what happened in 2008 again, we're back to an economy which is on the verge of collapse and the virus pushed us over the top of the cliff. 

Knowing the stock market crash is going to continue and there is NOTHING that can prevent it. There are two outcomes. 

1) By the beginning of May, things are looking good and the shows that have already been green-lit go back into production, but people are scared to green light any more production. We have our elections on-time, hopefully a new president brings with it, a positive change of the guard and we will see the markets slowly go back up again over the course of 12 - 18 months. The virus may come back in one form or another, but the vaccine works and we're able to survive. 

2) By the beginning of May, with the Covid-19 virus exponentially expanding throughout the world, everyone panics and the green lit projects are pulled and canceled. The virus slowly fades into obscurity as we all try to search for work, but there isn't any since they canceled the projects used the insurance money to get their money back. The virus declines over the summer, but people are still scared to go anywhere, so more businesses close down, more people are out of work. The elections are postponed due to the virus coming back in fall, this time with a new strain that is worse and more deadly. Trump will continue to be the president until the virus is gone and the markets will have a full-scale collapse to lower than they were during the 2008 crisis. The US dollar will have little value and OPEC will switch to a different currency for all their transactions, which makes the US dollar even weaker. The US dollar will eventually be pushed aside for a crypto currency, making cash worthless. People will lose their jobs, their homes and many more their lives. 

From my reading, #2 is what's predicted to happen, it has been for decades and now it's finally arrived.

I sure as heck hope #1 is what happens.

Either or, these are the two directions, either way we're totally screwed, one way will get us back to health in a little over a year, the other way will take years to recover, if it does at all. 

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Regarding the banks, the UK government (at least in the short term) seems to be working on  the basis of you owe us a favour from 2008. Part nationalisation for some vital companies seems to be on the cards, this is what happened to some of the UK banks in 2008. I don't know how this would go down in the USA.

The self employed are causing difficulties, as are zero hour contracts, although.  they seem to trying to get something into place in the UK.

Ar the moment everything seems to be aimed at stretching out the peak, so the the bell curve doesn't go over what the medical system can handle. The resources of the private hospitals are being added to the NHS to expand the capacity. However, I suspect, it will be a case of easing the economy slowly back when the medical system can handle the number of intensive care cases.

Looking at China and Italy, the medical staff are in the front line of this, being at risk of a getting a heavy dose of virus.

 

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I'm not voicing these concerns because it's ethical or nice. I'm saying it because I consider it possible, if not likely, that we simply can't avoid either one horrific conclusion or the other.

To put it as simply as possible, this problem is not going away in an amount of time that we can all reasonably spend in isolation. Before long, the power, water, and other essential services will begin to fail. Food shortages (which don't really exist yet) will start to become genuine and quickly become acute. This situation cannot continue; if we attempt to continue it anyway out of fear of the alternative, it will be ended by the gradual collapse of society.

But neither can we deliberately end it. An eighteen month window for availability of a vaccine has been mentioned, but this assumes that a vaccine is possible and that no problems will be encountered. It is quite feasible that no vaccine is possible (as it is not for the common cold, which is sometimes caused by a different coronavirus.) If reinfection is possible, herd immunity is not possible. It is certainly not possible under any circumstance to treat the number of cases that would result. This situation cannot be contemplated either.

So we have two options.

Continue the policy of isolation, which we cannot do.

Or end the policy of isolation, which we cannot do.

At some point we will be required to choose.

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Don't forget that there can be unexpected good news. It can happen. Do everything you can to help the situation, be practical, wash your hands carefully and often and limit your exposure to large groups of people. And don't give in to doom and gloom. There's always hope.

I'd humbly suggest that the time is coming for people to get down on their knees and sincerely pray. Prayer can really, really work.

Edited by Jon O'Brien
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I’m doing my best to set myself up for success when things calm down. Getting as much as possible done so that once we’re allowed back into our normal lives I can finish up things like casting and fundraising and get right into production on my next film. 
 

I figure it’s better than waiting for arbitrary work or jobs to start trickling in.  There are going to be a lot of people wanting to get out and start shooting.  I suspect it’s going to be a fantastic period for indie films.  


 

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I'm trying to figure out why we don't put the responsibility of people with at-risk family members on the people themselves rather than all of society. If the virus is going around, why not just avoid seeing them until a cure or vaccine is found? Why lock away 100% of the population when it's only fatal to 10-20% of the population?

I'm in agreement with @Richard Boddington on the highway analogy.

The question I'd like everyone to think about is: How many lives should be made worse to save just one life in the short term?

This upcoming crash is going to destroy people's careers and living situations for more years than at risk old people will continue to live. Just because the quarantine ends in (estimate) 1 or 2 years doesn't mean everyone will get their business back together.

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32 minutes ago, Max Field said:

I'm trying to figure out why we don't put the responsibility of people with at-risk family members on the people themselves rather than all of society. If the virus is going around, why not just avoid seeing them until a cure or vaccine is found? Why lock away 100% of the population when it's only fatal to 10-20% of the population?

I'm in agreement with @Richard Boddington on the highway analogy.

The question I'd like everyone to think about is: How many lives should be made worse to save just one life in the short term?

This upcoming crash is going to destroy people's careers and living situations for more years than at risk old people will continue to live. Just because the quarantine ends in (estimate) 1 or 2 years doesn't mean everyone will get their business back together.

The virus does not discriminate. Do you really think you can simply leave the problem to one part of the population so that you can get on with business as usual? I'm sorry but your comment is incredibly ignorant and selfish. In times like this we all have to come together and do what is right. I can understand that you are scared, we all are. But please, show some courage!

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With respect @Max Field and @Richard Boddington, this is a heartless and uninformed position on public health.

On average across 34 countries, the current mortality rate is ~ 3% (source).

If the pandemic finishes with no vaccine, then 9.8 million Americans and 1.12 million Canadians will die from the virus alone. This is also assuming both health care systems can handle a fast pandemic, instead of a slow pandemic that the world is trying to push towards. [Spoiler: neither heath care system can handle a fast pandemic]

Because the healthcare system will collapse for COVID-19 cases, other public health issues will too be effected such as other diseases, cancer treatment, physical accidents, etc. A fast pandemic will create a snowball effect of the health care system failing to help those who need it (rich or poor) and more people will die.

In this hypothetical situation, substantially more people will die and the economy will have a nuclear meltdown. What's currently happening in the economy will look like a walk in the park compared to this scenario.

If I were to use the highway example from earlier, this theoretical highway would be falling apart, littered with car crashes, even more dangerous than before, and most likely un-drivable.

---

As someone with asthma, who the CDC says I have a high risk of serious injury or death from COVID-19, I could care less that you're getting strained financially. I'm in the same boat; I live and work freelance in Los Angeles, I was slated to shoot a feature next week that got pushed back indefinitely. I have no idea when I'll work as a DP again.

But I'd rather have friends, family, and myself alive and well.

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@Max Field

A temporary hospital set-up in Madrid.

People can't get proper treatment because there are too many that are ill at the same time and this is just the beginning. And why? Because too many people have ignored the advice to self isolate. Anyone could end up needing help. Life will be different for all of us from here on. You can keep whinging or try and make the best of it.

6000.jpg

Edited by Uli Meyer
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12 hours ago, David Mullen ASC said:

Yes, of course at some point we'll go back to work and there won't be some obvious "all's clear" line, it will be a calculated risk that it's relatively safe because the rate of infection is manageable.

But the notion that we should just all go about our business on Monday and let the chips fall where they may no matter how many thousands may die, well, that doesn't strike me as very responsible or ethical.  

That is not at all what I said.

Ok well we'll see where we are six weeks from now, if people are losing their homes and their cupboards are bare because they can't work due to lock down restrictions, it's going to be a different ballgame.  I say again David, you are in a different situation, it's just you and your wife, what do you tell the young grip with two small children at home after week 9 or 10 passes with zero work?

As a side note, still not sure what makes this flu different from every other year, like last year for example, thousands died, never heard a peep about it on the news: "CDC estimates that the burden of illness during the 2018–2019 season included an estimated 35.5 million people getting sick with influenza, 16.5 million people going to a health care provider for their illness, 490,600 hospitalizations, and 34,200 deaths from influenza"

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2018-2019.html

Boating season starts May 1st, and I can't wait to get out on the water and continue not watching the news.  I will also enjoy putting that super dirt cheap gas into the boat, down to .67 a litre here in Ontario now! Wow!  Normally we never get access to cheap gas in Canada, as soon as it goes down, the government dog piles more taxes onto it.  If I never watched the news, I wouldn't know there is even an issue here in Ontario.  The grocery stores are filled to the rafters with food, everyone is behaving normally, there are no line ups at the gas stations, cars are still on the HWYs.  I'm going about my business and will avoid entering a hospital, seniors home, or any other place "at risk" people may be.

 

R,

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3 minutes ago, Richard Boddington said:

As a side note, still not sure what makes this flu different from every other year, like last year for example, thousands died, never heard a peep about it on the news: "CDC estimates that the burden of illness during the 2018–2019 season included an estimated 35.5 million people getting sick with influenza, 16.5 million people going to a health care provider for their illness, 490,600 hospitalizations, and 34,200 deaths from influenza"

People get flu vaccinations. If they didn’t, the mortality rate would be many times higher, not just 0.2%. There’s no vaccine for this one (yet). The video that was posted in this thread does explain this. 

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2 minutes ago, Uli Meyer said:

People get flu vaccinations. If they didn’t, the mortality rate would be many times higher, not just 0.2%. There’s no vaccine for this one (yet). The video that was posted in this thread does explain this. 

But, but......34, 200 deaths from flu in the USA last flu season, and I never heard about it until I looked it up on-line.

R,

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47 minutes ago, AJ Young said:

As someone with asthma, who the CDC says I have a high risk of serious injury or death from COVID-19, I could care less that you're getting strained financially.

Bro I got asthma too, and like I said before, would rather die than go broke.

I find it interesting how many people here are touting their morals and good faith towards mankind when we all work in an industry that is well known for screwing people over 24/7.

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14 hours ago, Richard Boddington said:

I find it somewhat amusing listening to the CA governor keep issuing stricter and stricter orders for people to stay home.  What is LA's 60, 000 homeless people supposed to do?  I know they are exempt, but even that is comical in a way....go to your house, if you have one.

Imagine if this thing, or any disease, gets into the LA homeless community in a big way.  I am still shaking from what I saw in LA from my week long visit there in December of last year.

R,

 

Not just in LA, the homeless in SanFran and New York will unfortunately be an indicator of the virus worsening. I don't believe the stats China is reporting, very few new infection?  April and certainly May will be very bad months in NYC.

   Workwise, until the travel ban is listed (in areas with said), there won't be any non-essential work. Time to find a different way to use your skills. Just acquired a "travel certificate" for NJ, hope to get one for NYC this week.

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7 minutes ago, Max Field said:

in an industry that is well known for screwing people over 24/7.

Some do, some don’t. Either way, that doesn’t justify anything you have expressed. 

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11 minutes ago, Richard Boddington said:

But, but......34, 200 deaths from flu in the USA last flu season, and I never heard about it until I looked it up on-line.

R,

Because it happens every year. People are advised to vaccinate, some do, some don’t. This time potentially tens of millions of people could die. 

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13 minutes ago, Richard Boddington said:

As a side note, still not sure what makes this flu different from every other year,

From NPR:

"Data from China shows that each coronavirus case seems to infect around 2 to 2.5 additional people. That's higher than flu. The average patient spreads the flu virus to about 1.3 others."

Sickness spreads exponentially. Exponentials, by the way, is the math we talk about all the time here.

Here are a few more highlights from the NPR article:

Quote

New research suggests that the higher number of infections per coronavirus patient may be related to the frequency of presymptomatic transmission — when people who have been infected are not yet showing symptoms but in fact could be contagious. An analysis of data from China found that 13% of cases were likely caused by people spreading coronavirus before they started coughing and feeling achy.

By contrast, flu is most contagious in the three or four days after symptoms begin, according to the CDC, and presymptomatic transmission doesn't seem to be a major driver of new cases.

---

Data from China shows that 20% of COVID-19 patients, though, are serious enough to get sent to the hospital. That's about ten times more often than flu. Even though a great many people are hospitalized for the flu — the preliminary data for the 2018-19 flu season is nearly half a million — the rate of hospitalization is far lower: 1-2% percent of cases, according to the CDC.

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Initial data shows that coronavirus is deadlier. In the U.S., seasonal flu kills 1 in a thousand people (0.1%) who get sick from it — the death toll last season was more than 34,000. Worldwide, an estimated 300,000 to 650,000 people die from flu each year.

By contrast, COVID-19 is currently estimated to kill at least 10 people per thousand infected (1%). "It's about ten times more lethal than the seasonal flu," said Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institutes of Allergy and Infectious Disease, in congressional testimony on March 11.

But sure, don't be scared. It's just the flu, right?

15 minutes ago, Max Field said:

Bro I got asthma too, and like I said before, would rather die than go broke.

I find it interesting how many people here are touting their morals and good faith towards mankind when we all work in an industry that is well known for screwing people over 24/7.

Why are you picking this as your hill to die on? (no pun intended)

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18 minutes ago, Uli Meyer said:

People get flu vaccinations. If they didn’t, the mortality rate would be many times higher, not just 0.2%. There’s no vaccine for this one (yet). The video that was posted in this thread does explain this. 

Let's say a vaccine is ready for next flu season, how will millions of uninsured Americans get access to it? I lived in the US, the uninsured just avoid doctors and hospitals.  And will you get the vaccine into 60, 000 homeless in LA, no one will want to pay for it.  And by no one, I mean no level of government.  The US is a real outlier when it comes to healthcare. 

R,

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40 minutes ago, Max Field said:

Duh, most of us are gonna get it. Not even close to all of us are gonna die from it.
https://science.slashdot.org/story/20/03/19/1639259/99-of-those-who-died-from-virus-had-other-illness-italy-says

1) The US is not reporting people who aren't tested. The tests aren't coming back for days due to the labs being overloaded. They're only testing people who are 65 and older. They're also only testing people who they think the test will help their outcome. The new nearly-instant test, was suppose to hit hospitals already, but they pushed that arrival until next week. So between now and then, we will not know. 

2) Currently 12% of those people who get the virus are dying. TWELVE! I don't care if you're young and think you're healthy, that's a horrible number and its the reason why all the countries are on lockdown, besides the US. 

3) There have been plenty of perfectly healthy adults who have been hospitalized and have come out the back end having lost their jobs and saddled with horrible debt. 

This is the beginning of the death of the freelance industry. 

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