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Frank Hegyi

How long do you think we're gonna be unemployed?

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Just now, Uli Meyer said:

I just quoted the report.

You didn't say anything about Trump citing projection models that said potentially 2.2 million people or more could have died. Is he also being hysterical in your opinion?

2.2 million?  Why don't we predict the stock market and the weather whilst we're at it.  I'll throw my prediction into the ring as well, how about....561, 718?

R,

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1 minute ago, Richard Boddington said:

2.2 million?  Why don't we predict the stock market and the weather whilst we're at it.  I'll throw my prediction into the ring as well, how about....561, 718?

R,

Scientists have used mathematical models based on the data that is known and 2.2 million deaths was the result. That is the science if you like it or not. Trump acknowledged it, hence his complete U-turn on his "Easter back to normal" prediction.

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5 minutes ago, Uli Meyer said:

Scientists have used mathematical models based on the data that is known and 2.2 million deaths was the result. That is the science if you like it or not. Trump acknowledged it, hence his complete U-turn on his "Easter back to normal" prediction.

Like I said.....let's use the same methods to predict the stock market and the weather.  Why is it that "mathematical models" will accurately predict how many people get infected by a virus, but they lack the ability to predict the weather or the stock market?

R,

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7 minutes ago, Uli Meyer said:

hence his complete U-turn on his "Easter back to normal" prediction.

At the very least someone has to offer a ray of hope.  It's a hell of a lot better than the talking heads on the news who predict ever increasing doomsday scenarios.  Not sure why you are so much a "sky is falling" type of personality?

R,

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2 minutes ago, Richard Boddington said:

At the very least someone has to offer a ray of hope.  It's a hell of a lot better than the talking heads on the news who predict ever increasing doomsday scenarios.  Not sure why you are so much a "sky is falling" type of personality?

R,

A ray of hope should be based on facts and not wishful thinking. Trump is a populist and says what many people want to hear.

I am not a "sky is falling" type. I'm also not sticking my head in the sand. Here's a little ditty to cheer you all up.

 

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7 minutes ago, Richard Boddington said:

Like I said.....let's use the same methods to predict the stock market and the weather.  Why is it that "mathematical models" will accurately predict how many people get infected by a virus, but they lack the ability to predict the weather or the stock market?

Because it's a simpler calculation, without all the variables involved with the weather and  psychopathic financiers doing crazy things for short term gain. There is a model for the stock market that does very well with it's stocks long term, but it doesn't satisfy the gambling urge of the "investors"  who keep the stockbrokers doing very nicely without any personal risk to themselves.

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13 minutes ago, Richard Boddington said:

Like I said.....let's use the same methods to predict the stock market and the weather.  Why is it that "mathematical models" will accurately predict how many people get infected by a virus, but they lack the ability to predict the weather or the stock market?

R,

I don't want to pick a fiight but do some research into how accurate weather predictions are for ON STATION. I used to be a meteorologist in the US Navy and the lowest 48 hour prediction acccuracy we ever had in my 5 years as a "weather guesser", was 96%. Doing the weather on a ship, moving across a dynamic surface that affects weather itself is extremely difficult, and many ships do it every single hour of every day. Do you know how we know? The ships aren't missing. As for you thinking that weather can't be forecast, after 48 hours, accuracy goes down logarithmically. Past 96 hours is 50% prediction rate. This is for on station, not 2 miles or 10 miles away.  If you live right where a weather station is and you have access to the data (and you do because it's all public) then you don't have cause to complain. Weather is science; dynamic, difficult science but still predictable. Disease transmisssion is also science, within given margins of error. The stock market is pure human nature which is completely erratic.

Phil Forrest

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20 minutes ago, Philip Forrest said:

I don't want to pick a fiight but do some research into how accurate weather predictions are for ON STATION. I used to be a meteorologist in the US Navy and the lowest 48 hour prediction acccuracy we ever had in my 5 years as a "weather guesser", was 96%. Doing the weather on a ship, moving across a dynamic surface that affects weather itself is extremely difficult, and many ships do it every single hour of every day. Do you know how we know? The ships aren't missing. As for you thinking that weather can't be forecast, after 48 hours, accuracy goes down logarithmically. Past 96 hours is 50% prediction rate. This is for on station, not 2 miles or 10 miles away.  If you live right where a weather station is and you have access to the data (and you do because it's all public) then you don't have cause to complain. Weather is science; dynamic, difficult science but still predictable. Disease transmisssion is also science, within given margins of error. The stock market is pure human nature which is completely erratic.

Phil Forrest

Ok so what will the weather be like here in Oro-Medonte, Ontario, Canada, on April 27th? 

So the stock market is completely erratic, but a virus is not?  Ok, er um, got it.

This thing could die out in the Northern Hemisphere with the onset of Summer, just as easily as it sprang up.  Besides fire season is only two months away in LA, once that starts, Corona Virus is gonna get an ass kicking. 🙂

Incredible how many doom and gloomers there are on this forum.  I am going about living my life, ignoring the hysterical screaming heads on the news media, also prepping a shoot for Sept 8th.  If it goes it goes, if not, next year then

I'm certainly not giving up and moving into an underground bunker like you all appear to be prepping for.  This is a short term storm, that will pass over.

R,

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This seems like a good time to end this thread 🙂

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11 minutes ago, Richard Boddington said:

So the stock market is completely erratic, but a virus is not?  Ok, er um, got it.

A virus is actually predictable: https://www.healthline.com/health/r-nought-reproduction-number

12 minutes ago, Richard Boddington said:

I'm certainly not giving up and moving into an underground bunker like you all appear to be prepping for.  This is a short term storm, that will pass over.

People are trying to do the right thing and prevent the virus from spreading. It really isn't that difficult to do.

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13 minutes ago, Richard Boddington said:

I'm certainly not giving up and moving into an underground bunker like you all appear to be prepping for.  This is a short term storm, that will pass over.

 

It will pass over sooner rather than later if enough people do 'bunker down' / isolate. 

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23 minutes ago, Richard Boddington said:

 So many other businesses, including airlines, are still operating.

Facts would seem counter to that, there are lots of aircraft parked up at airports, aircrew no longer working  and  airlines worried about their futures. 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52093009

"Passenger flights are believed to have been cut by up to 95%, but that still means one in 20 are taking off" according to this

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-52098430

 

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I guess all I can say in parting is that you can all just sit, and wait for the end.

R,

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