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Frank Hegyi

How long do you think we're gonna be unemployed?

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14 minutes ago, AJ Young said:

Yeah, NPR is definitely known for its "if it bleeds, it leads" news culture.

They follow the same news techniques as everyone else.  Every news writer will tell you that the lead story has the most impact, ie, how many people does it affect.  Even NPR will not lead the news with a story about a little girl who got a fine for selling lemonade without a permit, vs, focusing on COVID-19. 

Anywhoo, I think we have reached the saturation point on this thread, and we are now in a circular argument, those that want the lock down to extend indefinitely no matter what the costs, and the rest of us who see that at the very least as being totally impractical and impossible to continue for the long term as it will cause potentially even worse problems.

R,

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1 minute ago, Richard Boddington said:

Even NPR will not lead the news with a story about a little girl who got a fine for selling lemonade without a permit, vs, focusing on COVID-19. 

Yes, but NPR doesn't sensationalize. NPR is the news organization that is routinely mocked for how dry, calm, and boring it is.

You and Max need to see the writing on the wall that this is a serious situation. Obviously people can't be quarantined away from work for two years, which is why (in the US), Congress is quickly trying to pass a stimulus package.

7 minutes ago, Richard Boddington said:

those that want the lock down to extend indefinitely no matter what the costs, and the rest of us who see that at the very least as being totally impractical and impossible to continue for the long term as it will cause potentially even worse problems.

There will be far worse problems if we end the lockdown too soon. That's our, the scientific community, and economist's argument.

But you're right, we can't change opinions here. Let's round back in a year and see where we are.

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1 hour ago, Richard Boddington said:

What do ya'll learn from this chart? Way more people are recovering than dying, who get COVID-19.

Those numbers include China, who locked down the entire country. They have pretty much stopped the cases and have tools to deal with it. 


The United States, has not locked down jack shit. Yesterday we went for a walk and the parks were full, as if nothing was going on and that is in a lock-down city in a lock-down state! Nobody is taking this seriously and it keeps getting spread! We're a few weeks in and we still don't have tests that work, so we aren't reporting! They aren't going to waste a test on a dead person, so they have no idea how many dead people have the virus in the united states. We will have good tests coming to us very soon, but Trump has repeatedly said over and over again, they aren't reporting the test results to the CDC. So ALL of the data out there for the US is complete bullshit and WAY off. We have 10x the amount of infected and dead, but nobody will know due to the reasons above. Do you really think China reported honest results as well? 

Anyway, the ship has sailed, the economic downturn is here. We are not going to turn it around and yea you will be affected as well.  

Edited by Tyler Purcell

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7 minutes ago, Tyler Purcell said:

and yea you will be affected as well.  

Well....I could write some verbiage on that, but, it's just going to piss people off even more, as emotions are clearly running high.

R,

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35 minutes ago, Brian Drysdale said:

The death figures are after lock downs etc, the doing nothing death figures for the UK in one model is around 500,000.  I expect in the end, after going through all this, people will say that death figures aren't that high and ask was it worth it?

If the UK population is 66 million, even a conservative mortality rate of 1% results in more deaths than half a million. But if you do nothing, the health system cannot cope with millions of sick people so the mortality rate skyrockets. Look at Italy, they have 60,000 cases right now, with 5500 deaths and only 7000 recovered. Those are not good statistics.

Are people really asking if it's worth shutting down the capitalist treadmill for a few months to save millions of lives? How brainwashed are we that we can't imagine alternatives to the work/pay bills/sleep paradigm? Max would rather be dead than broke? Seriously?

Being broke is temporary. Dead is dead. I know too many wonderful older people or ones with compromised immune systems to accept that their deaths are an acceptable sacrifice to keep the edifice of comfortable capitalism from crumbling. We just need to imagine new ways to get through this. Living wages for those without income, a freeze on mortgages, loans and rents, universal healthcare, communities supporting each other while we isolate. It's all possible.

The US is possibly the worst place to be right now, because they've never had good social security or healthcare systems in place, but plenty of other countries have. And now the value of governments looking after their populations rather than just facilitating wealth creation for a few is becoming very apparent. Time for a paradigm shift.

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6 minutes ago, Dom Jaeger said:

The US is possibly the worst place to be right now, because they've never had good social security or healthcare systems in place, but plenty of other countries have. And now the value of governments looking after their populations rather than just facilitating wealth creation for a few is becoming very apparent. Time for a paradigm shift.

That is very true, I said from the beginning the US has segments of the population other countries don't deal with on the same level.  Like the homeless and the uninsured.  Even middle income Americans will stay away from doctors and hospitals if they don't have insurance, a one day stay in a US hospital can easily exceed $10, 000.00 or more.  Decades of debates over the health care system in the US have yielded zero results.

R,

 

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1 hour ago, Dom Jaeger said:

Max would rather be dead than broke? Seriously?

I'm like 70% serious. My OCD and clinical anxiety is too severe to be homeless.

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22 minutes ago, Max Field said:

I'm like 70% serious. My OCD and clinical anxiety is too severe to be homeless.

You're welcome to move in with me Max, lot's of room.  Hopefully you like my taste in movies that we'll be watching while the apocalypse unfolds. 🙂

R,

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3 minutes ago, Richard Boddington said:

You're welcome to move in with me Max, lot's of room.  Hopefully you like my taste in movies that we'll be watching while the apocalypse unfolds. 🙂

R,

I'd rather just make some shorts if that's alright with you, will bring my Alexa! Need more experience on jobs where the DoP isn't also the director.

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The benign we utopia of Nouvelle Zealandia is going into what they called level 4 lockdown in 48 hours, all except essential services closed, everyone except essential services isolated at home with social distance discipline. But the govt is keeping the payrolls going somehow,  and self employed people are eligible for support. Cooperation from banks, some quite good measures from the govt to help.

We are doing this earlier than most countries might. We only have about 100 cases, with population about 4M, and only a couple that aren't recent arrivals on aeroplanes. But numbers are poised to grow exponentially, so hopefully these early measures work.

 

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I had a dream the other night that a stranger shook my hand... I woke up and immediately washed my hands... even though I knew it was a dream. 🤷‍♂️

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7 hours ago, Tyler Purcell said:

The United States, has not locked down jack poop. Yesterday we went for a walk and the parks were full, as if nothing was going on and that is in a lock-down city in a lock-down state!

You went outside and other people were there? Stop the presses, it's almost like it's safe to go on a walk or hike because it's not a effective way to transfer a virus from person to person. I've noticed something very different I live in Toluca Lake and I drove up to the costco on Sherman Way and Tujunga early saturday morning and the streets were empty aside from a bum peeing right onto lankershim, and police cars were in most parking lots, looked plenty locked down to me. 

I don't want to risk arrogance but the majority of people who get this virus will be just fine, in fact a lot will probably barely feel sick. Is it worth the massive hit to the economy? Honestly not sure, but the California lock down commitment until the end of April, that should be worth a short, and if it's not, well poop, I'm already doing everything I'm supposed to. 

The major problem is obviously hospital capacity and access to ventilators. A vaccine is probably coming sooner than 18 months, while they typically do take a long time to develop, this will more likely be expedited due to the massive **(obscenity removed)** the entire world is taking. 

While the vast majority of people will be fine, it can just bull doze old people and those with underlying health conditions. Here's a tip, if you aren't 80, if you get it, stay out of a hospital unless you have a hard time breathing. What they don't tell you is pneumonia is probably going to be caused by the bacteria factories that are hospitals. Same reason so many people get a bad case of MERSA after going to the hospital for something else. 

It is serious, all novel viruses are, and this one just seems to want to spread like wildfire, and yes I know some young people have died, I can't say anyone has a read on this virus quite yet, but whether the economy resumes soon, or effect treatments start (a good one is already being toyed with, it's off label medication, but anyone who knows dick about medicine knows how it all starts, AZT was a cancer drug before used for AIDS) this is something we will eventually have to face, it will not be contained. 

At the end of the day it's a novel cold virus, it'll kill some people, but we will all have to get it and let it become part of the seasonal cold from here on out. Maybe we should sanction China after this, after SARS 1, H1N1, Bird Flu, and now SARS 2 - Corona Virus, maybe all wildlife meat sales should be curbed (can extended elsewhere, we can thank people eating monkeys for AIDS, I frankly don't give a poop if it's insensitive, unleashing viruses that cripple the entire world is far worse)   

Before you say 'bro you don't know what you're talking about' both my parents are oncologists, I've grown up around doctors my whole life.  Both of them are taking this serious, and I only am because I don't want to pass it on to them and risk them having a serious response to it. If it weren't for that, I'd frankly rather just get it, gather the antibodies, and get back to living life again, because living like this until July or August frankly sounds worse than a healthy person's response to covid-19.

I'm thinking about everyone out of work right now, I hope we bounce back soon, you're all in my thoughts 

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7 hours ago, Dylan Gill said:

Before you say 'bro you don't know what you're talking about' both my parents are oncologists, I've grown up around doctors my whole life. 

A lot of people yelling about taking the virus seriously boils down to identity politics, just because some old idiots didn't freak out for one reason, they now assume everyone else not freaking out is anti-science.

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7 hours ago, Dylan Gill said:

 Maybe we should sanction China after this, after SARS 1, H1N1, Bird Flu, and now SARS 2 - Corona Virus, maybe all wildlife meat sales should be curbed 

That is clearly a discussion we need to have, but, the "R word" will make sure it does not happen.

R,

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8 hours ago, Dylan Gill said:

If it weren't for that, I'd frankly rather just get it, gather the antibodies, and get back to living life again, because living like this until July or August frankly sounds worse than a healthy person's response to covid-19.

There are several problems with this.

First, if you get it, it is likely that dozens of other people will be infected by you. It is not prima facie unreasonable to ask - actually, to demand - that people remain isolated as much as possible. If you infect people through unreasonable carelessness, you are potentially responsible for deaths. It is difficult to determine exactly when infections start, so you are unlikely to be directly confronted with a death you have caused, but you have caused it nonetheless.

Second, it is not clear that 2019-nCoV causes an antibody response which would prevent reinfection over any particular timescale.

Third, July or August is optimistic.

I agree that, at some point, the long term societal impact will have to be balanced against, frankly, mortality, but this fantasy that we can simply contract the disease then forget about it is just that.

P

 

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Once 66% of the population have had the virus AND built up anti-bodies, the virus spread will have leveled out. That's what all governments are aiming for. If you get to that infection rate too quickly, too many people will die at the same time, overload the health system and cause huge human and economic hardship. Governments are trying to slow down the rate of infections without stopping it (since that is not possible) and balance that with economic losses. Here in the UK the government pays up to 80% of the salaries of laid off workers, has got rid of business rates and gives grants to small businesses. They are not doing enough for freelancers and I hope that this will be sorted out, but at least it is a start. Unfortunately our PM has acted too slow and so have other leaders.

Anyone who selfishly decides to ignore self isolation and other measurements that were put in place, is jeopardizing those efforts. That's what happened in Italy where the death rate is now at 7 or 8%.

The good news is that many more people are probably already infected than the figures show. In Germany they've been testing much larger numbers and the death rate is 0.2 %. Now the infection curve is apparently easing up. There is hope but there are also too many unknowns. Until we know more, everybody has to do their bit. This is the most sensible way forward. Please!

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9 hours ago, Dylan Gill said:

You went outside and other people were there? Stop the presses, it's almost like it's safe to go on a walk or hike because it's not a effective way to transfer a virus from person to person. I've noticed something very different I live in Toluca Lake and I drove up to the costco on Sherman Way and Tujunga early saturday morning and the streets were empty aside from a bum peeing right onto lankershim, and police cars were in most parking lots, looked plenty locked down to me. 

I mean, the place shouldn't have been packed. There is a state wide and city wide ordinance to lock the place down. If people don't adhere to that, what else are they not adhering to? Maybe they're at malls going shopping? Why are the effin' malls still open at all? 
 

9 hours ago, Dylan Gill said:

The major problem is obviously hospital capacity and access to ventilators. A vaccine is probably coming sooner than 18 months, while they typically do take a long time to develop, this will more likely be expedited due to the massive **(obscenity removed)** the entire world is taking. 

Well yes, and the fact hospitals do other things like physical trauma care as well. Part of the reason why everything is shut down, is to help prevent normal day to day accidents and illnesses that may drag down hospitals even further. 

Currently it appears that Covid-19 has more than one strain. So any early development vaccine will not be capable of dealing with the virus long-term, it may help reduce cases in patients who are more susceptible, but the roll out will take such a long time, by then it will be another flu season and another strain will come in. Many people forget, people still die from the flu every year, even if they get the vaccine, that's how many strains there are out there. 

9 hours ago, Dylan Gill said:

While the vast majority of people will be fine, it can just bull doze old people and those with underlying health conditions. Here's a tip, if you aren't 80, if you get it, stay out of a hospital unless you have a hard time breathing. What they don't tell you is pneumonia is probably going to be caused by the bacteria factories that are hospitals. Same reason so many people get a bad case of MERSA after going to the hospital for something else. 

Well yes, the vast majority of people will be fine. But so far in the US, there are dozens of cases of healthy young people being taken down to the point of being on a ventilator. One story I read from a small town in Louisiana was heartbreaking and the doctors there had seen nothing like it. They said it had nothing in common with the flu or pneumonia, it was something totally different. 

The problem I have is that good, working people are being hospitalized and many will come out the back end having bills they can't pay for since by the time this thing is over, there won't be many jobs left. Unlike Europe, who have strong unions, the united states does not care about it's employees, thus we have no job security. Sure, all countries are going to face businesses closing, but to lose your job because the president of the United States didn't have the balls to prevent the planes from landing for Chinese New Year OR to lock the country down the moment they landed, its pretty shitty. I honestly expect my entire company to fold, because the last good job I had, same thing happened. We had an economy bust and any company who wasn't able to handle the storm, went out of business. 

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BBC reporting the daily deaths finally starting to drop in Italy:

https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-52000039

Which is consistent with what happened during the 1918 pandemic, won't go into why, the info is out there.

R,

 

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1 hour ago, Richard Boddington said:

That is clearly a discussion we need to have, but, the "R word" will make sure it does not happen.

R,

It's insane that politics are coming into this at all aside from establishing a safety net for the people who are indefinitely out of work. If they can bail out banks and airlines, they sure as hell need to bail out their people who they've demanded stop living life. 

I'm not sure how it's racist to tell an oppressive government that treats its people inhumanly to stop creating massive global problems. It's not a judgment on the people, but it's total intellectual dishonesty to pretend like there isn't a government to hold to account for this. Maybe if we weren't addicted to iphone's we wouldn't fellate them so much. 

2 hours ago, Max Field said:

A lot of people yelling about taking the virus seriously boils down to identity politics, just because some old idiots didn't freak out for one reason, they now assume everyone else not freaking out is anti-science.

I don't know about that, I do think it needs to be taken seriously for the time being because some people simply can't fight back against it. I honestly have no idea why it's causing so much respiratory failure, it makes very little sense. It bothers me to not be able to think around it. I think there's a balance between freaking out and thinking the sky is falling and being totally unconcerned. I think we should all be concerned for the time being. 

1 hour ago, Phil Rhodes said:

First, if you get it, it is likely that dozens of other people will be infected by you

Who said I wouldn't self isolate if I were ill? I would probably err on the side of caution an not leave my house for a month if I contracted it. I've already been alone for 10 days now and it's slowly driving me insane, but I'm doing it.  

1 hour ago, Phil Rhodes said:

It is not prima facie unreasonable to ask - actually, to demand - that people remain isolated as much as possible

I don't disagree with you. 12 to 18 months is an unreasonable wait time though.

1 hour ago, Phil Rhodes said:

Second, it is not clear that 2019-nCoV causes an antibody response which would prevent reinfection over any particular timescale.

There's no reason why we wouldn't develop immune response to this virus. Even if reinfected (how many times have you had influenza?) your body would know the intruder and start getting to work, turning it from a novel virus with possible complications to the common cold, that's the whole point. It defies basic science to say that we won't build up some immunity to it just because it's scary right now. 

31 minutes ago, Tyler Purcell said:

I mean, the place shouldn't have been packed. There is a state wide and city wide ordinance to lock the place down. If people don't adhere to that, what else are they not adhering to? Maybe they're at malls going shopping? Why are the effin' malls still open at all? 

Then why were you there? I'm kidding you were there for the same reason everyone else was, to get fresh air and to curb the boredom and fear of the current situation by getting fresh air. You can know it's ok to go to the park, but not the mall or movie theater, right? Even then, everyone still needs to make grocery runs. 

The outdoors isn't easy to pass the virus unless we are talking coachella level crowds. I went hiking last week and there were plenty of people, but no one got in my face, that's all you need to do outside. 

34 minutes ago, Tyler Purcell said:

Currently it appears that Covid-19 has more than one strain. So any early development vaccine will not be capable of dealing with the virus long-term, it may help reduce cases in patients who are more susceptible, but the roll out will take such a long time, by then it will be another flu season and another strain will come in. Many people forget, people still die from the flu every year, even if they get the vaccine, that's how many strains there are out there. 

It doesn't matter if it has more than one strain, a vaccine will do kind of what getting ill from it will do (and surviving) it'll wake up your immune system to what it needs to be looking for. 

Flu vaccines are basically just guesses what the dominant strain is going to be. Apart from the H1N1 vaccine in 2009 I almost never get them because they almost never guess right, and the flu is the easiest illness I've ever had. Four days with a headache, fever, and fatigue. I'll take that over food poisoning any day. 

Get a basic SARS-Co-2 vaccine and get it to as many people as possible and it'll stop spreading like it is. Just like flu vaccines, which are just guesses. It's the same theory, and it seemingly works. 

39 minutes ago, Tyler Purcell said:

But so far in the US, there are dozens of cases of healthy young people being taken down to the point of being on a ventilator

This is concerning. The way it attacks some and not all, is odd, and doesn't make sense. I hope these measures slow the spread so as little people as possible have to go through it, and we get a better understanding of how to fight it.  Hell now there's the hydroxychloroquine + z pack treatment, that might stop the SARS part of the infection. 

46 minutes ago, Tyler Purcell said:

The problem I have is that good, working people are being hospitalized and many will come out the back end having bills they can't pay for since by the time this thing is over, there won't be many jobs left. Unlike Europe, who have strong unions, the united states does not care about it's employees, thus we have no job security.

I agree whole heartedly 

46 minutes ago, Tyler Purcell said:

to lose your job because the president of the United States didn't have the balls to prevent the planes from landing for Chinese New Year OR to lock the country down the moment they landed, its pretty shitty.

Not sure how it's our president's fault and not the Chinese government's (who didn't restrict travel during the onset and suppressed information, more than likely still is)? I'd imagine he'd get severe backlash for having done either of those actions because it would be deemed racist. 

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3 minutes ago, Dylan Gill said:

There's no reason why we wouldn't develop immune response to this virus.

The media won't allow it until they're done with this story.

R,

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6 minutes ago, Richard Boddington said:

The media won't allow it until they're done with this story.

R,

Well, here the more trustworthy media is saying that virologists say that it is very likely. We mustn’t forget that this virus crossed species from bats to human. With human to human viruses there is an inbuilt response in our immune system. That’s why the ordinary flu virus isn’t as deadly. We don’t have that automatic response with a virus that came from an animal. That’s why they are so deadly. Truth is nobody really knows yet. 

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6 minutes ago, Uli Meyer said:

Well, here the more trustworthy media is saying that virologists say that it is very likely. We mustn’t forget that this virus crossed species from bats to human. With human to human viruses there is an inbuilt response in our immune system. That’s why the ordinary flu virus isn’t as deadly. We don’t have that automatic response with a virus that came from an animal. That’s why they are so deadly. Truth is nobody really knows yet. 

Yes, my comment is of course a commentary on the irresponsible nature of the news media. Check any news cast, do they lead with the number of deaths or the recoveries?  If the number of recoveries is higher, which it is, why not lead with that info instead?

Even if we did nothing this virus would die out, from a biological stand point, it has to.  Would take longer and kill more people, but the people saying this will go on for years haven't read even the basic info on how a virus operates.

Of course none of us here are immunologists or economists, so none of us are qualified to talk on this issue.  Unless of course we want an immunologist or economist showing up on our next film set and saying.....I kinda like this angle over here. 🙂

R,

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23 minutes ago, Dylan Gill said:

Not sure how it's our president's fault

Don’t forget that he initially said it was a hoax, then said it would be over quickly only to realise a bit late that this is serious. His Brazilian buddy Bolsonaro did something similar. He insisted at first that the virus was fake news. Valuable time lost that cost people’s lives. 
 

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10 minutes ago, Uli Meyer said:

Don’t forget that he initially said it was a hoax, then said it would be over quickly only to realise a bit late that this is serious. His Brazilian buddy Bolsonaro did something similar. He insisted at first that the virus was fake news. Valuable time lost that cost people’s lives. 
 

Didn't know about that, that's pretty bonkers. I have doubts that there would have been government response before it happened regardless 

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Posted (edited)
9 minutes ago, Dylan Gill said:

Didn't know about that, that's pretty bonkers. I have doubts that there would have been government response before it happened regardless 

The WHO alerted all governments about the possibility of an epidemic in mid January. Nobody acted. It is of course a difficult decision to make because if you act early and nobody dies, people would question if there even was a threat. If you wait you are risking lives and people will ask why you didn’t act sooner.  You can’t really win. It doesn’t help that Trump dismantled the White House pandemic department. 

Edited by Uli Meyer

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