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Frank Hegyi

How long do you think we're gonna be unemployed?

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4 hours ago, Tyler Purcell said:

Just got word that my broadcast friends were told, they're going to be going back to production in July, right after the 4th. 

That would roughly fit in with the 12 week period that people at risk here have been asked to stay in their homes.

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There's quite some distance between "at risk groups ending their isolation" and "everyone goes back to normal."

For many people, me included, there is a serious question over whether we can realistically expect things to ever go back to normal. I, as with many people here, do work that is entirely discretionary and which is highly unlikely to do well in a recession or even depression.

But here's the thing. If I had personally caused however many deaths are currently shown here I would expect to spend the rest of my life in prison even if I had done it accidentally, with no reason to suspect my actions might cause a problem. If I had done it having been warned not to do it, having had several close calls previously, I would expect the situation to be, if possible, even more serious.

There is culpability here and I would see that culpability pursued for all kinds of reasons. Mainly, though, in the absence of any likelihood that the international community can meaningfully hold China to account, I'd see this pursued to minimise the chances of it happening again.

P

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One very encouraging thing is that the isolation measures seem to be containing the virus well. Of course it will eventually go out into the community but we will be much better prepared for it (hopefully). I'm wondering if some sort of adjusted strategy might be arrived at soon, where rather than a fairly widespread lock down the more vulnerable people can self-isolate and be given government assistance, and those less at risk can get back to work ... well, those who still have work.

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12 minutes ago, Jon O'Brien said:

One very encouraging thing is that the isolation measures seem to be containing the virus well. Of course it will eventually go out into the community but we will be much better prepared for it (hopefully). I'm wondering if some sort of adjusted strategy might be arrived at soon, where rather than a fairly widespread lock down the more vulnerable people can self-isolate and be given government assistance, and those less at risk can get back to work ... well, those who still have work.

Some sort of strategy? What do you suggest? Every vulnerable person to be moved to one part of the country which is then hermetically sealed? I would love to hear your ideas.

The only way to beat this thing is to keep the spread of the virus as minimal as possible. Everything else is just wishful thinking.

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Quoting Dr. Gregory Poland, an American physician and vaccinologist:

We won’t reopen in April. The number of new cases we’re seeing now in the United States is increasing by almost 50% every day. We are on the steepest part of the curve right now. What we’re seeing is a reflection of transmission two to four weeks ago, which means whatever you’re seeing now, it will be significantly higher and worse in a few weeks.

It doesn’t make any sense to loosen restrictions during an epidemic. You’re fundamentally choosing economics over our lives. Let’s say you live in a community with a 200-bed hospital. They have five to 10 ICU beds, half of which are used for heart attacks and everything else. So maybe they have five beds and five ventilators. If you admit one person a week, you can give great medical care. If you admit 20, 50, or 100, mortality rates shoot up.

It means your hospitals are overrun. People are on carts in the hallways, and they die in the hallway waiting for medical care. There aren’t enough ventilators, IV fluids, doctors and nurses. It’s a scenario you never want to see. So if everybody goes back to work, people start dying in droves.

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No need to be sarcastic, Uli. We disagree about some things, fine, but I tend to be polite to those I disagree with politically and you, not so much. You suggested without any provocation that I lacked courage, the other day, on this thread. Okay, you are frustrated. We all are. Many, many Australians are really suffering now. I'm being positive, polite, and courageous. You should display more respect. We are all in this together.

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Just now, Jon O'Brien said:

No need to be sarcastic, Uli. We disagree about some things, fine, but I tend to be polite to those I disagree with politically and you, not so much. You suggested without any provocation that I lacked courage, the other day, on this thread. Okay, you are frustrated. We all are. Many, many Australians are really suffering now. I'm being positive, polite, and courageous. You should display more respect. We are all in this together.

Jon, I have nothing personal against you, we never met. I have family dotted around the planet, my children live in New Zealand, Brazil and the UK and since December I have a newborn son. My work has dried up and I am living off savings, just like so many of us. Those savings will run out at some point but I would still prefer to continue to adhere to what has been proven to work when it comes to stopping this thing from spreading too quickly. This will save lives. It does frustrate me when I read comments where the desperation to go back to work is so strong that people are willing to accept higher death rates. I couldn't live with the thought that I have caused someone's death because I went back to work too early. And I don't understand how anyone could.

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55 minutes ago, Uli Meyer said:

I couldn't live with the thought that I have caused someone's death because I went back to work too early. And I don't understand how anyone could.

Because it isn't that simple.

Unending restrictions will kill people just as surely as the virus. I'm not proposing the Trump point of view, nor am I disagreeing (as Jon seems to be) with what's being done right now.

What I am suggesting is that at some point, it is sensible to consider the long term health outcomes of ever deeper, ever longer global economic depression, which will also cause deaths.

The deaths caused by macroeconomics are less spectacular, less newsworthy than those caused by a virus, and they will create fewer front-page images of sobbing medical staff. I do not seek to minimise or overlook the desperate plight lots of people face. Even so, I would hate to discover in twenty years that we had killed more people with long term consequences of this situation - whether that's economic, medical or anything else - than were killed by the virus itself.

In short, what is being done now must be done, but we must not have a blank-cheque mentality to the immediate saving of life if that causes more deaths in the long term.

P

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There probably will be a crossover point, where they have enough ventilators and other medical resources in place to deal with a flattened curve, combined with an improved immunity within the population, to allow closer to normal activity. Bearing in mind that there could be a series of repeat curves the final call could be political, rather than based on purely economic or health reasons.

What works in one country may not work in another.

 

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One thing to remember, since there is only 3 months of epidemiology on this novel virus, is that there is NO GUARANTEE of resilient immunity. Yes, there is an immediate immune response, but that may be short lived. We can only hope there is immunity, but as it stands, you can still catch the same cold twice in a year. 

Phil Forrest

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3 hours ago, Uli Meyer said:

It does frustrate me when I read comments where the desperation to go back to work is so strong that people are willing to accept higher death rates.

If this drags on and people start to run out of money en masse that's exactly what will happen.  Hard to think of a white collar job that can't be done from home, at the office it's just a desk and a computer plugged into the internet, and everyone has the same thing at home these days.  But mechanics, hairdressers, janitors, etc etc etc, they can't work from home, desperation will set in there at some point.

R,

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People will do ANYTHING to make sure their children are fed. Really. There is no limit to what a person will do in order to provide for their family. 

Phil Forrest

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Posted (edited)

Things are getting really serious in Europe. Thousands of medical staff in Italy have been infected with the virus from the patients they were treating in the hospitals, despite their best efforts to protect themselves. Out of those cases, 37 doctors have died.

In Spain, there were 738 deaths in one day. They've started using an ice rink as a morgue. 

 

Edited by Patrick Cooper

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1 hour ago, Richard Boddington said:

The irony of this is so thick you can cut it with a knife:

https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/china-covid-second-wave-1.5508920

It's amazing how much effort America puts into trying to convince the rest of the world they aren't racist while China over here is openly xenophobic (not deeming this move pure xenophobia) and the culture barely puts up any push back.

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I find the claim that China's domestic infection rate is now zero to be highly suspect.

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On another note, I just got toilet paper. 

G

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1 hour ago, Phil Rhodes said:

I find the claim that China's domestic infection rate is now zero to be highly suspect.

I have a connect in China and he says it's like 90% true.

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1 hour ago, Phil Rhodes said:

I find the claim that China's domestic infection rate is now zero to be highly suspect.

You don't trust the communist Chinese government Phil? Huh.

Trudeau loves them so much he sent them 16 tonnes of medical supplies last month, including thousands of masks.  Meanwhile nurses in Toronto hospitals are being told to re use masks.

R,

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3 hours ago, Gregory Irwin said:

On another note, I just got toilet paper. 

G

Great to hear Greg! 

Our lovely neighbours left 2 rolls on our front step the other day after I'd mentioned we were a bit low.  Good people are everywhere.

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Bubonic Plague, AKA black death is a bacterial infection spread by fleas. It can't and shouldn't be confused with any virus. There are still cases every year in the southwest USA.

Phil Forrest

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