Jump to content

Is This The Nail in the Coffin for Theaters?


Max Field

Recommended Posts

If the COVID lockdown actually lasts a year how many of these theaters can expect to survive?

I think it was Trolls World Tour that did a digital release, charging $20 and when they do digital they keep like 80% of revenue? As opposed to theaters apparently claiming half of said revenue?And then AMC theaters is having that dispute with Universal...

Theaters were dying before a pandemic but a year of zero revenue is sure to speed up that process.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It's an interesting question. I wonder if theaters go back to more of the movie palace format where only the biggest movies are released theatrically in one or two locations in a city. I mean I guess this is the way movies worked before the era of the multiplex. While it might be a death knell for the theater business as it currently sits, it could result in an elevated movie going experience and make going to the movies an event again. Maybe the films get released in the big theaters a few weeks before streaming. It could definitely help quality control or directors like Tarantino who want to do 75mm releases, etc. Just thinking out loud. 

The other thing is that the streaming model is a bit dicey to me. It's a little like the pay cable TV model where the content provider is basically paid for the right to stream their content, but the problem with a movie is that you have no idea how well received its going to be. On television you have ad revenue to help gauge interest and viewership. For something like HBO you have subscribers. But with streaming it all seems like guesswork. Like "okay we'll make 6 Underground for 100 million because we guess it's worth that much..?" Maybe I'm just ignorant of the process but how do they gauge ROI without tangible metrics like tickets sold, DVDs sold, or ad dollars? Yes a million people might watch something on Amazon Prime, but those same million might've already been subscribed and are paying a blanket fee for all content. I guess in some ways streaming is less risky than a theatrical release model where no one could show up, or the movie gets killed by bad reviews (streaming basically mitigates the impact of critics) or some extenuating event like the Dark Knight shootings or a pandemic puts a damper on revenue -- these things don't happen on streaming platforms, but I wonder how sustainable it is. I suspect it might dramatically shift the way movies are financed with the platforms absorbing more risk than the studios, which is more like television. 

Edited by Phil Jackson
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I've also been thinking that the palace format of large, somewhat grand theaters might come back. Just one or two in a city maybe. I went to see 2001 a couple of years ago here in Brisbane and the whole theater was much more in the old grand cinema experience. It was a really great, worthwhile experience. Little things can make a big difference to an evening out. Even having the curtain there, opening up at the start of the show. 70mm projectors in the booth. Business people, investors, sit up and take note. Can't beat traditional cinema.

Edited by Jon O'Brien
Link to comment
Share on other sites

The theaters find themselves in a situation unlike anything seen before.

I believe the question is more along the lines of will any of the theaters still be in business when the lockdowns are lifted, rather than 'do people still want to go to a movie theater'? It's more of an economic question than suddenly everyone deciding overnight that they would rather watch movies at home.

Large screen TV's are great and all of that, but let's face it. As long as people go on dates, socialize or simply want to get out of the house there will be movie theaters.

Big screen LED Tv's are great and so is streaming, but who doesn't want to see a movie on a big 40ft screen back up by a massive sound system? 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 5/1/2020 at 10:55 AM, Phil Jackson said:

The other thing is that the streaming model is a bit dicey to me. It's a little like the pay cable TV model where the content provider is basically paid for the right to stream their content, but the problem with a movie is that you have no idea how well received its going to be. On television you have ad revenue to help gauge interest and viewership. For something like HBO you have subscribers. But with streaming it all seems like guesswork. Like "okay we'll make 6 Underground for 100 million because we guess it's worth that much..?" Maybe I'm just ignorant of the process but how do they gauge ROI without tangible metrics like tickets sold, DVDs sold, or ad dollars? Yes a million people might watch something on Amazon Prime, but those same million might've already been subscribed and are paying a blanket fee for all content. I guess in some ways streaming is less risky than a theatrical release model where no one could show up, or the movie gets killed by bad reviews (streaming basically mitigates the impact of critics) or some extenuating event like the Dark Knight shootings or a pandemic puts a damper on revenue -- these things don't happen on streaming platforms, but I wonder how sustainable it is. I suspect it might dramatically shift the way movies are financed with the platforms absorbing more risk than the studios, which is more like television. 

As someone who's been trying for a while to crack the code of working streaming revenue into a business plan, I can safely say that the obfuscation is by design and 100% intentional on the part of the major streaming platforms.  None of them want filmmakers to know who is watching their films, how many people are watching or how much money your content is making them on their platform.   If you knew, you could negotiate terms with an informed agenda.

There are some attorneys out there who have some knowledge of the deals being struck and they've seen checks go out to filmmakers for contingent compensation packages but the length of contracts and exclusivity of the contracts determines the ROI and since that is so variable across properties, it's gonna be anybody's guess when you're pitching.  

Not a huge concern for the platforms like Amazon because their own original programming can cost a bundle and it doesn't matter if a single person watches.  They literally burn money and it means nothing.  But for anyone working outside and bringing them content, it helps to know what your content is worth when you're pitching financiers who are backing you.    And right now that's the part of the equation that is deliberately kept as confusing and murky as possible. Cause the sad truth is, Netflix and Amazon, Hulu and the rest don't want their customers watching your content.  They prefer if everyone watches their own.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Premium Member

The the big theater chains are solvent until November. 

Rumor around the mill is that they'll file for chapter 11 bankruptcy -if there is no summer blockbuster releases- as a way to re-structure financially and get rid of debt. Thus, coming out of this mess in better shape, but with fewer cineplexes. 

Even if the theaters do re-open, what will they show? They've pushed nearly all the big movies OR will be releasing them online. I think the studio's are wising up to the fact they're going to take huge losses this year and are going to brace for the worst summer on record. 

My biggest concern are the ma and pa theaters. They were already doing poorly, just in the last year several more closed and I have a feeling there will be a lot more closers this year. 

One side note, now that we've seen cases go up in countries that have opened up, I don't think we will have movie theaters again for a long time. We'll find that re-opening the country, leads to more cases of Covid and more deaths. Once everyone realizes that, I think people will really start to freak out and it will get way worse. But hey, we can only hope!

 

 

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

26 minutes ago, Dennis Toeppen said:

Two words: Drive-Ins.

I couldn't agree more!!! Always loved 'em. Except on moonlit nights, watching sci-fi flicks with lots of space battles.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I used to go to the movies 3 - 5 times a year, but only to see the big movies on the big screen. Like 1917 or Star Wars. Last Star Wars was disappointing, so swore off seeing any more of that series except on free DVD from the library.

It would be sad to see movie theaters die off, but if the virus does not go away lotsa things will be changed beside the movies. I'm old and got bad lungs, so flying will be out for me in a post pandemic world. That takes Japan off my list of planned shoots.

Even traveling by cruise ship is out. Ship or plane, both are good virus incubators. As of now I just go outside of the house 2 times a week to pick up mail and food. Looks like the only way I can travel is by car or RV.

Used to like drive-ins when I was a kid. Don't know if I would nowadays. I'd rather watch on TV. Drive-in picture quality is poor. But when I think of drive-is, I always think of the train photographer O. Winston Link.

https://www.google.com/search?q=o+winston+link+drive+in+photo&sxsrf=ALeKk01l3zJP59VHt9Fibj4N-MlPdQuNtA:1588862282284&source=lnms&tbm=isch&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwjFwbqf_aHpAhVUWs0KHYecD2YQ_AUoAXoECBcQAw&biw=800&bih=573

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I would think a Drive In with today's digital projectors and HD radio should be pretty good. Drive ins don't necessarily reproduce a theater experience though. Depending on where you park the field of view of the screen is more like watching on television -- so you might as well watch on a television. But hey, maybe those big 70s conversion vans might make a comeback -- kids gotta have something to do! Drive in and chill.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
×
×
  • Create New...