Mike Brennan Posted October 1, 2006 Share Posted October 1, 2006 Red website states that reservations will close in October. I friend has reservation number near 480, which he acquired at IBC. So by end of October we can assume maybe 600 reservations. Lets say around 500 actually buy a camera. Nice round number 500! I'm wondering if their are legal/trade advantages in USA to resticting the number of cameras made to 500? Is it more onerous for warrenty or duration of product support if they make more than 500? They could come out with a new model for the next batch of 500. Just wondering why someone would stop taking orders for a product, other than putting the price up after October. Mike Brennan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Häakon Posted October 1, 2006 Share Posted October 1, 2006 Red website states that reservations will close in October. I friend has reservation number near 480, which he acquired at IBC. So by end of October we can assume maybe 600 reservations. Lets say around 500 actually buy a camera. Nice round number 500! I'm wondering if their are legal/trade advantages in USA to resticting the number of cameras made to 500? Is it more onerous for warrenty or duration of product support if they make more than 500? They could come out with a new model for the next batch of 500. Just wondering why someone would stop taking orders for a product, other than putting the price up after October. Mike Brennan Just FYI, they already have over 600 reservations. No building limits over 500 units. :) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris Kenny Posted October 1, 2006 Share Posted October 1, 2006 As far as I know RED hasn't said they'll stop at any specific round number. Jim Jannard's explanation for closing reservations: We have all the info we need to make good production decisions. It is likely the program may change a bit and we want to lock down the reservation holder's program. We think that a bit of notice is only fair. It sounds like the reservations existed mostly to gauge demand, and they think they've got a good handle on that now. That also looks like a hint that maybe prices will go up, or people who don't reserve won't get the display included in the $17.5K price, or something along those lines. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mike Brennan Posted October 1, 2006 Author Share Posted October 1, 2006 As far as I know RED hasn't said they'll stop at any specific round number. Jim Jannard's explanation for closing reservations:It sounds like the reservations existed mostly to gauge demand, and they think they've got a good handle on that now. That also looks like a hint that maybe prices will go up, or people who don't reserve won't get the display included in the $17.5K price, or something along those lines. 600 reservations may only mean 500 actual sales. "Locking down the program" does not exclude the notions expressed in my post and does indeed indicate a resricted number of first run cameras. I am wondering if there is a manufacturing/legal/warrenty/tax imperative to halting orders of the first model at a number or date. Need to get onto a manufacturing forum I guess :) Mike Brennan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris Kenny Posted October 1, 2006 Share Posted October 1, 2006 600 reservations may only mean 500 actual sales. "Locking down the program" does not exclude the notions expressed in my post and does indeed indicate a resricted number of first run cameras. I am wondering if there is a manufacturing/legal/warrenty/tax imperative to halting orders of the first model at a number or date. Need to get onto a manufacturing forum I guess :) Mike Brennan Sure, 600 reservations might only mean 500 sales, but you'd be a little irresponsible if you took 600 reservations (and counting) when you only intended to make 500 cameras. I seriously doubt that the RED ONE model will only be sold to people who get reservations before Oct. 31. I suspect when RED talks about locking down the program, they mean the terms of the program, e.g. what package you get at what price. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Shannon W. Rawls Posted October 1, 2006 Share Posted October 1, 2006 Remember, a single reservation can hold up to 5 cameras. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Lowry Posted October 2, 2006 Share Posted October 2, 2006 Remember, a single reservation can hold up to 5 cameras. 1 reservation = 1 camera is more likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Premium Member Chris Keth Posted October 2, 2006 Premium Member Share Posted October 2, 2006 1 reservation = 1 camera is more likely. You don't think that at 17 grand and with the fuss RED is causing that rental houses won't be picking some up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Lowry Posted October 2, 2006 Share Posted October 2, 2006 (edited) You don't think that at 17 grand and with the fuss RED is causing that rental houses won't be picking some up? Otto Nemenz has reserved 5, I believe. Probably others too. My point is that when counting cameras, 1 reservation is most likely to be 1 camera. If RED says they have 600 reservations, that's 600 cameras, not 635. I'm sure Otto Nemenz would be very unhappy if he didn't get 5 RED "Rs" for his $5k. Edited October 2, 2006 by Greg Lowry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eric MacIver Posted October 2, 2006 Share Posted October 2, 2006 Yes, $1k = 1 Red One reservation. We have our 5 R's. :) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Shannon W. Rawls Posted October 2, 2006 Share Posted October 2, 2006 (edited) delete Edited October 2, 2006 by Mr. Shannon W. Rawls Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitch Gross Posted October 2, 2006 Share Posted October 2, 2006 Speaking from knowledge of other highly-touted and much-anticipated camera systems that had reservation deposit programs, I can tell you that 600 reservation may only translate into 50 actual sales. Remember the reservations are fully refundable no matter whether RED delivers or not. When someone's number comes up they may decide to back out. The harsh reality is that most do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Lowry Posted October 2, 2006 Share Posted October 2, 2006 Speaking from knowledge of other highly-touted and much-anticipated camera systems that had reservation deposit programs, I can tell you that 600 reservation may only translate into 50 actual sales. Remember the reservations are fully refundable no matter whether RED delivers or not. When someone's number comes up they may decide to back out. The harsh reality is that most do. It'll be interesting to see RED's ratio of reservations to sales ... not that we'll ever know the precise numbers, but there will be anecdotal info. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mark Allen Posted October 2, 2006 Share Posted October 2, 2006 Personally I suspect that 33 to 50 percent of the reservations will go through with their purchase. I suspect the price will go up to $25k. Why do I think that? Honestly, just seems like if you decided to sell a camera for 25 and then were discounting it for early adopters, 17.5 would be the number you'd come up with. It's a 30% discount. 30% is a common discount level for "family and friend" deals. but if they did do this, I'm sure a lot of owners would be tempted to sell theirs for the quick profit. I'm probably wrong about all this, but felt compelled to share my theories anyway and I like that this thread has been all in a nice friendly tone. BTW, Eric, welcome to the forums. If local to LA production people haven't checked out www.indierentals.com - you should, it's a good rental house. I found them to make the extra effort, much appreciated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mike Brennan Posted October 2, 2006 Author Share Posted October 2, 2006 Personally I suspect that 33 to 50 percent of the reservations will go through with their purchase. I suspect the price will go up to $25k. Why do I think that? Honestly, just seems like if you decided to sell a camera for 25 and then were discounting it for early adopters, 17.5 would be the number you'd come up with. It's a 30% discount. 30% is a common discount level for "family and friend" deals. but if they did do this, I'm sure a lot of owners would be tempted to sell theirs for the quick profit. I'm probably wrong about all this, but felt compelled to share my theories anyway and I like that this thread has been all in a nice friendly tone. BTW, Eric, welcome to the forums. If local to LA production people haven't checked out www.indierentals.com - you should, it's a good rental house. I found them to make the extra effort, much appreciated. Gently steering the topic back to the thread....why stop ist batch at x number? tax/warrenty/legal/ ect? or are they already gearing up for 2nd generation model Mike Brennan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Graeme Nattress Posted October 2, 2006 Share Posted October 2, 2006 We'll make as many as we can sell. I don't think there's any legal reasons why we'd only make a small number. The reservation scheme was just accurately judge manfacturing volumes. Why are we stopping reservations? Because we have more than enough reservations to know we'll get the volume we need. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris Kenny Posted October 2, 2006 Share Posted October 2, 2006 Once again, we have no indication RED will stop the first batch at a hard number. All we know is that RED will stop taking reservations on Oct. 31. What happens after that is anyone's guess. Maybe RED will introduce a new pre-order program, with prices raised. Maybe yields on the sensor aren't that great, and RED will only be able to make 100 cameras a month off the bat, and they don't want a huge backlog. Maybe RED plans to start production runs of 5,000 units each in May, so reserving won't be necessary. We've really got no idea, and it's unproductive to try to draw useful conclusions about RED's business model merely from the fact that the current reservation program will end this month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Lowry Posted October 2, 2006 Share Posted October 2, 2006 (edited) Once again, we have no indication RED will stop the first batch at a hard number. All we know is that RED will stop taking reservations on Oct. 31. What happens after that is anyone's guess. Maybe RED will introduce a new pre-order program, with prices raised. Maybe yields on the sensor aren't that great, and RED will only be able to make 100 cameras a month off the bat, and they don't want a huge backlog. Maybe RED plans to start production runs of 5,000 units each in May, so reserving won't be necessary. We've really got no idea, and it's unproductive to try to draw useful conclusions about RED's business model merely from the fact that the current reservation program will end this month. To which I would add: who cares? RED says they'll make as many cameras as they can sell. Edited October 2, 2006 by Greg Lowry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mike Brennan Posted October 8, 2006 Author Share Posted October 8, 2006 To which I would add: who cares? RED says they'll make as many cameras as they can sell. I care. Speaking from experience as an owner operator updating video cameras over the past 20 years, when I learn that a model will be discontinued or updated this affects the timing of the disposal of existing kit and purchase of next. Do you wait for the next model with improved features? Will my clients want the improved features? What will the new product do to value of existing kit? The point is will the second production run (if I can call it that) will be better or different than the first. For the majority of the industry who don't have a reservation this is an important consideration! So knowing why they have capped production (if that is what they are doing) is an indicator if second generation improvements will come to light in a new model. The question was aimed at anyone with experience making low ish volume production runs in the USA, in an effort to find out if there are legal/warrenty issues for a company building a new product to stop taking deposits at a particular date or to cap production at a particular number. Mike Brennan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gavin Greenwalt Posted October 8, 2006 Share Posted October 8, 2006 It's my understanding that they don't intend any notable changes to the hardware for at least a year. However, you can probably expect consistant firmware updates. It would seem like a bad business move to make only 500 units and then have to rebuild your manufacturing pipeline. If they could I'm sure from a business stand point they would probably never want to modify the hardware except in the case of miniturization and consolidation of hardware to save money. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mike Brennan Posted October 8, 2006 Author Share Posted October 8, 2006 If they could I'm sure from a business stand point they would probably never want to modify the hardware except in the case of miniturization and consolidation of hardware to save money. The concept of not wanting to change hardware from a business standpoint, is a new one for makers of professional electronic cameras! Existing manufacturers go out of their way to change hardware. Will be interesting to see what happens in the mid term. Mike Brennan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gavin Greenwalt Posted October 9, 2006 Share Posted October 9, 2006 The concept of not wanting to change hardware from a business standpoint, is a new one for makers of professional electronic cameras! Existing manufacturers go out of their way to change hardware. Will be interesting to see what happens in the mid term. Mike Brennan That's because they usually saturate their potential market almost immediately. The market for RED cameras isn't going to be fulfilled for a long time and I would expect it to grow somewhat linearly for several years. As soon as sales on the RED dwindle expect a RED TWO. Again... all speculation but my guess is the bottlkneck is going to be on production not demand for some time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mike Brennan Posted October 9, 2006 Author Share Posted October 9, 2006 That's because they usually saturate their potential market almost immediately. The market for RED cameras isn't going to be fulfilled for a long time and I would expect it to grow somewhat linearly for several years. As soon as sales on the RED dwindle expect a RED TWO. Again... all speculation but my guess is the bottlkneck is going to be on production not demand for some time. Sony are still selling HDCAM camcorders after 6 years. (1000 in Europe if you believe them) Digibeta ran longer. They drop prices just before they release a new model. I dont think that this is could be called saturating the market almost immediately. Their prices start high and then drop. (f900 was £75k in 2002 but a new f900 is £48k) Yes the market for Red type cameras will grow, and so not be fullfilled for a long time, but I do not think dwindling sales of RED one will be the catalist to make a RED two as that supposes no competition from other manufacturers using latest technology. If Red has an unbeatable sensor, and it certainly looks excellent so far, then it would buy time. No doubt there is a finite production resource. But capping orders due to lack of production resources is weird, why not take the orders and promise a Q4 delivery? Perhaps its a markeing idea? or maybe the specification is likely to change within 12 months? Mike Brennan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Premium Member Stephen Williams Posted October 9, 2006 Premium Member Share Posted October 9, 2006 why not take the orders and promise a Q4 delivery? Mike Brennan Hi Mike, "Red makes no promises or representation as to the delivery date of the camera or final specifications" From Red website! Stephen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mark Allen Posted October 9, 2006 Share Posted October 9, 2006 Does anyone know how many production versions of other cameras exist? Like - How many varicams? How many sdx-900s? Genesis? Dalsa's? HVX200's? I'm just curious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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