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Return on investment on low budget indie


JeffT

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I'm planning on producing a low-budget ($15-30k) independent thriller. A straight to DVD 90min feature, filmed with an XL2.

 

I'm trying to get a business plan together in order to get the financing for this project, but to finish this plan, I need to know what to reasonably expect the financial return will be. I don't really want to make a profit, but I do need to be able to pay back my financiers.

 

Can anyone help give this newbie a clue? How much have other people sold their movies for? Who should I talk to? What's the best way to find out this information? Anybody here done it?

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IMO, it's 100% pure speculation at this point. If you already had a committment from a distributor you might be able to make a better guesstimate. There also tends to be a general bias from distributors against video originated films - whether justified or not. Scoring a distributor is probably the single most important and often overlooked things in a film project from a business standpoint. There are things you can do to improve your odds in obtaining one but, unfortunately, no magic, sure-fire techniques. If there was, we'd all be rich. So, from the standpoint of a business plan all you can really do explain how you plan to sell you film (go about getting a distributor) and (if successful) what you think you can get for it. You can use other similar films as examples. Getting useful data on other films takes time, research, and money.

 

Check out a book like "Filmmakers & Financing" by Louise Levison. I think it and other books like it will point you in the right direction.

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Unfortunately there is a glut of completed films with no distribution right now.

 

You don't even want to think about going into production without a few "elements" attached, something that lends perceived value to your distributor. Established Directors, Producers or Talent fall into this pool. Also owning the rights to something well known is very valuable whether it is a script, a novel or someone's life rights.

 

Your best bet at this point would be to sell a connected producer, manager or casting agent on the idea and see what they can make happen.

 

Until then you can work on polishing that script, then write another one.

 

I know it sounds like a downer but we're all in the same boat. Maybe you can figure out a way to break out of the mold.

 

Best of luck, we'll be watching.

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I don't really want to make a profit,

Don't tell your investors that!!!

 

I can only add that I'm sure many of us here have been involved with indy features that never left the shelf in the producer's coat closet.

 

I've shot features ranging from $0 to $150k that have never been seen outside the telecine or edit room, and I personally know of one $3.5-mil feature, with name talent, that died on the vine.

 

But then you never know 'till you try it, eh?

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In the film ?Treasure of the Sierra Madre? or heroes work hard to get their gold out of the mountains. And do so very successfully. Like many independent film makers they think their job is done only to find out the hardest part is getting the gold from the mountain to the buyers.

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Thank you for your posts, I appreciate it. This, at least, gives me the next stepping stone I have to cross.

 

Talk to distributors and find out (somehow) the return on similar movies.

 

I'll keep you posted on what I find out.

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In  the film ?Treasure of the Sierra Madre? or heroes work hard to get their gold out of the mountains.  And do so very successfully.  Like many independent film makers they think their job is done only to find out the hardest part is getting the gold from the mountain to the buyers.

That's great; I'm going to remember this and use it often.

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The Independent Feature Film Market (IFFM) starts in New York next week. This is the Mecca for people in the same boat as you. This is where many of these small films are purchased by distributors and there are many seminars devoted to helping filmmakers find production money or find distribution after production and so forth. It is administered by the Independent Feature Project (IFP). I'll actually be speaking on a panel discussing Super-16 production on Tuesday afternon.

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Unfortunately, next week is too soon for me to plan to get there. Is this a yearly thing? I don't anticipate being ready to distribute till next fall anyway. All I was after in this thread was a ballpark figure on the return of a low budget feature. Seems that the 'ballpark' is vast and varied. As I said, I'll keep you appraised as to what I find out.

 

I found http://www.ifp.org/ and that is helpful.

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Any business plan has to show best case, normal case, and worst case scenarios. Best case, your little $40k feature gets picked up for $10 million, 1000 screen theatrical release, and nets hundreds of millions. Normal case, you'll get a few thousand, hopefully enough to repay everyone, and some home video and possibly TV release. Worst case, no distributor picks it up, so you have the option of either letting it die, or self-distributing it.

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I'm not talking normal from a movie sence, but normal from a "what kind of deal will you get" sence. It is normal that, if you get a deal, it will be a crappy one.

 

A good entrepeneur however will not let a simple case of a distributors saying "no' get in the way. You can still turn a movie that no distributor will touch into a money earning venture.

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  • 3 weeks later...

I didnt think I would make anything from it. But would it be possible? Come on who doesnt like a stupid funny movie with lots of boobies. Also I have noticed that there arent a lot of straight to DVD comedies. They are mostly horrors and serious movies is this true or are there a lot of comedies straight to DVD.

 

Alex

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