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Frank Hegyi

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16 minutes ago, Daniel D. Teoli Jr. said:

Don't know if it is true, someone told me a successful vaccine has never been made for a coronavirus. Past attempts ruin the lungs or liver. ( ?)

If the China virus does not go away, does not die in the summer and there is no vaccine...then we are just plain **(obscenity removed)**ed.

After SARS there were attempts to produce a vaccine, but the animal trials produced immune responses that were worse than the virus itself. In subsequent years various researchers have tried to work on it but funding seems to have been a problem. We were all a bit short-sighted.

There seems to be some hope that a vaccine for COVID-19 will become available, but we have to be very careful that it's properly tested and trialled, which is why people are talking about a year to 18 months. The virus could also mutate making a vaccine no longer useful. 

I think in the end we are probably all going to have to catch it, or at least enough of us to give some group immunity. The main thing is to slow the spread so we don't overload our hospitals and health systems. It's **(insert obscenity of choice)** but we've always known something like this could happen and at least it's not as deadly as some pathogens. In a way it's a test of our ability to cope with such a crisis and perhaps learn from it. Countries that had to deal with earlier epidemics seem to be the ones coping best now.

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This is the 4th or 5th time this has happened in the last 20 years, and all of it came from you know where.  SARS came direct from you know where to Toronto, and Toronto became the epic centre of the North American SARS outbreak.  We need to stop pretending like these viruses are coming out of Norway and clamp down on the place (who cannot be mentioned) that is the home base for these problems.  Just think of the loss of life and financial disaster this is causing.

R,

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20 minutes ago, Richard Boddington said:

We need to stop pretending like these viruses are coming out of Norway and clamp down on the place (who cannot be mentioned) that is the home base for these problems.  

...What are we gonna do? We owe a trillion dollars to China, you get away with atrocities when your country produces for the rest of the world.

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Posted (edited)

The Chinese wet markets are where the virus crossed species. Something clearly has to change.

The wet markets where livestock, wild animals and meat are sold in one place are part of the Chinese culture. It would be a huge task to shut these down since they are a massive part of local economies. And that is the reason why nothing happened to them after the first Sars outbreak. Lots of farmers would have lost their livelihoods and since "only" ca. 800 people died from Sars, the ensuing economic hardship would have been much bigger.

Do you recognize the argument? Hopefully this time economic considerations won't stand in the way of change.

It is ridiculous to call someone racist who points out the problem. But it is not helpful to call the virus 'Chinese". Too many idiots out there looking to attack innocent citizens.

 

 

GettyImages-1170683924-2500x1667.jpg

Edited by Uli Meyer

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1 hour ago, Uli Meyer said:

The Chinese wet markets are where the virus crossed species. Something clearly has to change.

The wet markets where livestock, wild animals and meat are sold in one place are part of the Chinese culture. It would be a huge task to shut these down since they are a massive part of local economies. And that is the reason why nothing happened to them after the first Sars outbreak. Lots of farmers would have lost their livelihoods and since "only" ca. 800 people died from Sars, the ensuing economic hardship would have been much bigger.

Do you recognize the argument? Hopefully this time economic considerations won't stand in the way of change.

It is ridiculous to call someone racist who points out the problem. But it is not helpful to call the virus 'Chinese". Too many idiots out there looking to attack innocent citizens.

 

 

GettyImages-1170683924-2500x1667.jpg

China has already made the mixed live animal/ wet markets illegal .. problem is its not enforced .. as you say its almost an impossible task ..  but maybe their ruthless tactics re their own people .. would for once be a good thing .. and they will try to totally clamp down on them..

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6 hours ago, Max Field said:

...What are we gonna do? We owe a trillion dollars to China, you get away with atrocities when your country produces for the rest of the world.

That's not a problem, that's leverage.

We - the international community - are free to take China to the ICJ; China can't be made to turn up, but at that point it's arguably legal for the rest of the world to arbitrarily decide it doesn't owe trillions of dollars to China. This might be a very reasonable thing to do, for more reasons than just the virus. I'm not proposing an absolutist or hasty approach to this sort of thing, but the virus is evidence, if any was needed, that China needs to be gently, cautiously, but forcefully brought to heel.

As to banning the markets; this was apparently tried (in I think 2003?) after SARS 1, and despite the authoritarian nature of the Chinese state they essentially failed to do it. The power structure is so centralised and so autocratic that it creates two problems: first, there are a lot of questions over how much really effective power it actually has out in the provinces, and second, nobody will ever tell Beijing anything that might be unpopular. That explains the endless lying and cover-ups. 

If you want to make excuses for why the Chinese government didn't react better to this, part of the reason is likely that they just didn't know enough, soon enough, simply because everyone in the structure of the organisation is terrified of reporting bad news.

P

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6 hours ago, Phil Rhodes said:

If you want to make excuses for why the Chinese government didn't react better to this, part of the reason is likely that they just didn't know enough, soon enough, simply because everyone in the structure of the organisation is terrified of reporting bad news.

1 in 10 restaurants in China deep fry using gutter oil. They knew, they just really don't value human life as much as other cultures because they have so many people. If a school bus of children die in America it's on the news for months, in China it's a blip for a day and they move on.

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11 hours ago, Phil Rhodes said:

simply because everyone in the structure of the organisation is terrified of reporting bad news.

Kinda like a movie set. 🙂

R,

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Some time after this is all over, I think it's inevitable that someone will make a movie about this pandemic and the global hardships it has caused.

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Social isolating and lockdown are shown to work in Austria, China, Italy etc as new cases go down. It's the only way it's going to work, that and drugs like remdesivir and co being tested as treatments. AND the famous antibody test touted by Boris Johnson is making its way to the US and the UK which is said to be a gamechanger as it'll tell you who has had the virus, so people can start going back to work.  

Supposedly people SHOULD be immune to it, there are a handful of cases where the virus was said to have reactivated but can be explained by a false positive or the person simply hadn't completely kicked the virus. Then, there's also recovered patients donating blood for infected folks to fight it. 

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8 hours ago, Manu Delpech said:

Social isolating and lockdown are shown to work in Austria, China, Italy etc as new cases go down.

Are you sure it worked in Italy? Cases just seem to keep exploding there in spite of the Draconian measures.  At the end of the day this thing is going to run its course and die out on its own, same as every flu season.  Trump is right in that states who have a very low number of cases like Wyoming, should be fully re opened.  New York is a hot spot for disease spread on a good day for obvious reasons.

R,

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Getting back to the original question...

This article from The Atlantic does a good job of predicting the future.

The Four Possible Timelines for Life Returning to Normal
The coronavirus outbreak may last for a year or two, but some elements of pre-pandemic life will likely be won back in the meantime.
https://www.theatlantic.com/family/archive/2020/03/coronavirus-social-distancing-over-back-to-normal/608752/

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7 minutes ago, Richard Boddington said:

Are you sure it worked in Italy? Cases just seem to keep exploding there in spite of the Draconian measures.  At the end of the day this thing is going to run its course and die out on its own, same as every flu season.  Trump is right in that states who have a very low number of cases like Wyoming, should be fully re opened.  New York is a hot spot for disease spread on a good day for obvious reasons.

R,

In Italy they are just now starting to see the effects of the lock down. There are less new infections. It takes a few weeks to notice results. Richard, last week you agreed with Trump that everybody should go back to work at Easter. He's gone awfully quiet about that. What do you think now?  

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11 minutes ago, Uli Meyer said:

In Italy they are just now starting to see the effects of the lock down. There are less new infections. It takes a few weeks to notice results. Richard, last week you agreed with Trump that everybody should go back to work at Easter. He's gone awfully quiet about that. What do you think now?  

I think his plan of designating areas of high, medium, and low risk is a good one.  The US is such a huge country with tightly packed areas of population, and huge open rural areas.  Having a one rule fits all plan for isolations and restrictions, just doesn't make any sense.  Have people in high risk categories continue to self isolate, yes.  Ontario now has 21 deaths, and billions and billions in economic loses, the cost to death ratio is just too high in my view.  Entire businesses simply won't re open and the recovery will take years not months, this is like hitting a flea with a sledge hammer.

R,

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27 minutes ago, Tim Tyler said:

Getting back to the original question...

This article from The Atlantic does a good job of predicting the future.

The Four Possible Timelines for Life Returning to Normal
The coronavirus outbreak may last for a year or two, but some elements of pre-pandemic life will likely be won back in the meantime.
https://www.theatlantic.com/family/archive/2020/03/coronavirus-social-distancing-over-back-to-normal/608752/

Obviously the 1-2 year plan would be so devastating people will be dying from malnourishment and suicide instead when they realize everything they've built is gone.  Obviously it's a damed if you do, damned if you don't decision.

The Ontario government is now moving toward Draconian measures with continued threats of jail time for those that disobey.  Really, you're going to jail thousands of people if they start to disobey, please, not even feasible.

If there are 20, 000 people on a beach you're going to process and lock up 20, 000 people? Ontario's Wasaga Beach is close to me, yes we have beaches in Ontario no foolin' the world's longest fresh water beach actually.  It's a Summer town, and this whole thing smacks like it's right out of JAWS, towns people to mayor.....are you going to close the beaches?

R,

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On 3/25/2020 at 9:28 AM, Richard Boddington said:

 There is no plan to test the entire population, nor can that feasibly be done.

If there is a plan to test everybody, we don't know about it yet. I agree with The Atlantic article though:

"Projecting when each facet of daily life will be restored would be easier if public-health authorities had an omniscient view of who is infected, who has recovered and become immune, and who is still susceptible—this is the information that would emerge from widespread testing,"

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40 minutes ago, Richard Boddington said:

I think his plan of designating areas of high, medium, and low risk is a good one.  The US is such a huge country with tightly packed areas of population, and huge open rural areas. 

The virus has so far spread to almost every country on the planet. Do you think there are areas in the US where it can't reach? I really doubt that.

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27 minutes ago, Uli Meyer said:

The virus has so far spread to almost every country on the planet. Do you think there are areas in the US where it can't reach? I really doubt that.

Fact is it's not in the Mid Western states to the extent it's in NYC.  Uli why do you think it's infected NYC to the degree it has and not Wyoming or Iowa?  The European strategy does not need to be applied across the USA cart blanche.  That makes zero sense, a surgical approach is needed for North America, not a one size fits all policy.

People taking the, anything Trump suggests is wrong, approach just aren't thinking realistically.  CNN will scream against Trump if he suggests that people should use the bathroom, eat, and breath.  They have hardly a shred of neutrality left.

R,

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1 hour ago, Tim Tyler said:

If there is a plan to test everybody, we don't know about it yet. I agree with The Atlantic article though:

"Projecting when each facet of daily life will be restored would be easier if public-health authorities had an omniscient view of who is infected, who has recovered and become immune, and who is still susceptible—this is the information that would emerge from widespread testing,"

You'll never be able to test all 330 million Americans.  Especially with the massive patch work of private health-insurance, medicare, the uninsured, the millions and millions of homeless and undocumented migrants, plus all 50 states operating as sovereign nations.  Geez, what a complete mess it would be.  If you set up free public testing sites, the undocumented will stay away in droves, they will fear arrest and deportation.

R,

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24 minutes ago, Richard Boddington said:

Fact is it's not in the Mid Western states to the extent it's in NYC. 

Yet.

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