Bold prediction: film will become cheaper in the medium to long term

[Robin R Probyn]

24 minutes ago, Tyler Purcell said:

Really, you wanna talk precious metals with someone who has their entire life savings in that market? Please. 

Well any google search will tell you Silver is a very volatile commodity .. especially in gold / silver forums you will see this  .. very easy to get burnt with silver .. my quote is from Wikipedia , its not just my personal opinion..  its simply wrong to say Silver is a stable commodity with no / not much price fluctuation over decades ...  last post on silver from me ..  lets hope there is a silver lining for 2021 .. 🙂 

[Tyler Purcell]

9 hours ago, Robin R Probyn said:

Well any google search will tell you Silver is a very volatile commodity .. especially in gold / silver forums you will see this  .. very easy to get burnt with silver .

Here is silver. Draw a line from 2005 to the far end of this graph. Then do the math on inflation during that same time period. You'll see silver prices follow inflation (outside of recessions 2008 and 2011). So in 2005 the price was $6 and by 2015 it was $16. That's a $10 change in 10 years. Obviously today we're in a recession, so yea it's not a good time to buy silver. 

Here is gold, slightly less detailed graph, but you can see it does not follow inflation what so ever. This is because the demand for gold is less stable. Golds value is more speculative rather than driven by demand like silver. Gold is also used as a currency replacement, so when local currencies devalue, you see the price of gold increase. Notice how gold started going up before the "official" recession. That's investors getting out of the USD and into gold due to fears of currency devaluation. 

 

So do the math will ya?

Silver was $6  per ounce pre-recession in 2005 and before the recession in 2019 it was $18 per ounce

Gold was $500 per ounce pre-recession in 2005 and before the recession in 2019 it was $1400 per ounce. 

So silver has gone up 3x AND again, outside of recessions, it has a stable price that follows inflation. 

Gold has gone up less than 3x, but has huge fluctuations and will never go back down to the level of inflation. We hit a peak of $2100 on gold in 2020 for instance and sure, it's down to the high $1800's now, but it will continue going up and it will never get back down to anywhere near $1400 an ounce. Meanwhile silver, will keep going up, but when the recession is over in a few years, we should see it go back down again. 

So silver is actually a better buy for savings because not only has it increased its value faster, BUT follows inflation pretty well outside of recessions. Silver also has a benefit of being used in more industries than gold actually. Where I wholeheartedly agree that gold does have a better long term investment outcome, due to it being more aligned with the financial system, that wasn't the discussion. I simply commented that silver outside of recessions like the one we are currently in, will not go crazy in price. It will follow inflation. 

 

 

Edited January 25, 2021 by Tyler Purcell

[Robin R Probyn]

2 hours ago, Tyler Purcell said:

Here is silver. Draw a line from 2005 to the far end of this graph. Then do the math on inflation during that same time period. You'll see silver prices follow inflation (outside of recessions 2008 and 2011). So in 2005 the price was $6 and by 2015 it was $16. That's a $10 change in 10 years. Obviously today we're in a recession, so yea it's not a good time to buy silver. 

Here is gold, slightly less detailed graph, but you can see it does not follow inflation what so ever. This is because the demand for gold is less stable. Golds value is more speculative rather than driven by demand like silver. Gold is also used as a currency replacement, so when local currencies devalue, you see the price of gold increase. Notice how gold started going up before the "official" recession. That's investors getting out of the USD and into gold due to fears of currency devaluation. 

 

So do the math will ya?

Silver was $6  per ounce pre-recession in 2005 and before the recession in 2019 it was $18 per ounce

Gold was $500 per ounce pre-recession in 2005 and before the recession in 2019 it was $1400 per ounce. 

So silver has gone up 3x AND again, outside of recessions, it has a stable price that follows inflation. 

Gold has gone up less than 3x, but has huge fluctuations and will never go back down to the level of inflation. We hit a peak of $2100 on gold in 2020 for instance and sure, it's down to the high $1800's now, but it will continue going up and it will never get back down to anywhere near $1400 an ounce. Meanwhile silver, will keep going up, but when the recession is over in a few years, we should see it go back down again. 

So silver is actually a better buy for savings because not only has it increased its value faster, BUT follows inflation pretty well outside of recessions. Silver also has a benefit of being used in more industries than gold actually. Where I wholeheartedly agree that gold does have a better long term investment outcome, due to it being more aligned with the financial system, that wasn't the discussion. I simply commented that silver outside of recessions like the one we are currently in, will not go crazy in price. It will follow inflation. 

 

 

" Draw a line from 2005 to the far end of this graph. Then do the math on inflation during that same time period. You'll see silver prices follow inflation (outside of recessions 2008 and 2011). So in 2005 the price was $6 and by 2015 it was $16. That's a $10 change in 10 years"

But shifts in between that are huge in massive amounts .. Kodak are not buying silver to put under their bed as a hedge against inflation and Fiat currency Armageddon, they are buying futures , they are trying to / have to .. lock in prices for the future , its a gamble , they have to hedge these futures too..  much like airlines and oil prices .. flying the planes in a secondary business ,mainly they are huge oil futures trading companies. I'd also question any government inflation figures these are easily manipulated, ie they change the basket of goods they use to decide purchasing power !     commodities are volatile and change every second , thats why they traded by banks etc.. and silver is regarded as more so than many .. look at wiki not just graphs .. as I quoted ..

[Tyler Purcell]

3 hours ago, Robin R Probyn said:

But shifts in between that are huge in massive amounts .. Kodak are not buying silver to put under their bed as a hedge against inflation and Fiat currency Armageddon, they are buying futures , they are trying to / have to .. lock in prices for the future , its a gamble , they have to hedge these futures too..  

Well, yea of course but everyone see's the recessions coming. During a reason the prices go up is because the value of the currency you're using to purchase has gone down. Also during a recession, you see peaks due to wealth preservation. They buy low and sell when it peaks out and the recession is over. It's no different then as you said, buying futures and making a gamble. A smart person will know these things and predict recessions and buy a lot more than they need early on. 

[Robin R Probyn]

8 hours ago, Tyler Purcell said:

Well, yea of course but everyone see's the recessions coming. During a reason the prices go up is because the value of the currency you're using to purchase has gone down. Also during a recession, you see peaks due to wealth preservation. They buy low and sell when it peaks out and the recession is over. It's no different then as you said, buying futures and making a gamble. A smart person will know these things and predict recessions and buy a lot more than they need early on. 

Well my wife is not smart .. she married me after all ..

[Robin R Probyn]

On 1/26/2021 at 11:15 AM, Tyler Purcell said:

Well, yea of course but everyone see's the recessions coming. During a reason the prices go up is because the value of the currency you're using to purchase has gone down. Also during a recession, you see peaks due to wealth preservation. They buy low and sell when it peaks out and the recession is over. It's no different then as you said, buying futures and making a gamble. A smart person will know these things and predict recessions and buy a lot more than they need early on. 

Silver up 20% IN 5 DAYS .. !   12% in a day ..as I said ..  its a commodity .. its volatile ..this could ruin Kodak in days if they holding short positions on silver .. or they should sell the farm and take the money and run .. 

[Tyler Purcell]

7 hours ago, Robin R Probyn said:

Silver up 20% IN 5 DAYS .. !   12% in a day ..as I said ..  its a commodity .. its volatile ..this could ruin Kodak in days if they holding short positions on silver .. or they should sell the farm and take the money and run .. 

Yea and? ALL precious metals are up because WERE IN THE MIDDLE OF A RECESSION!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! HELLO! 

[Robin R Probyn]

4 hours ago, Tyler Purcell said:

Yea and? ALL precious metals are up because WERE IN THE MIDDLE OF A RECESSION!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! HELLO! 

Yes but its not so gradual is it .. as I said Kodak is not buying silver to  put under the bed , they are buying it as a commodity to make their product .. 20% spike in 5 days ..  HELLO .. they are toast of they were on the wrong side of that trade .. futures .. its not stable man .. didnt Trump say the US economy  was the best its ever been 🙂 

[charles pappas]

Hopefully Kodak is doing what I understand a consumer of silver should be doing which is either holding long options (calls) and/or having long term fixed-price contracts with silver sellers (who would in turn hold short options (puts)). However, they wouldn't be the first commodity consumer to be speculating on their commodity instead of hedging.

[Raymond Zananiri]

A consumer of a commodity (like Kodak) would typically hold a long (not short) position in that commodity. The producer of the commodity (Silver mining company) would typically hold a short position. 

Futures and Forward contracts for either those who actually consume or produce the commodity are a vehicle to hedge (lower risk). And that helps them ride smoothly those very volatile periods in the commodities market.

Futures are risky only for speculators. ie. those who do not intend to receive or deliver the actual commodity. 

[Tyler Purcell]

6 hours ago, Robin R Probyn said:

Yes but its not so gradual is it .. as I said Kodak is not buying silver to  put under the bed , they are buying it as a commodity to make their product .. 20% spike in 5 days ..  HELLO .. they are toast of they were on the wrong side of that trade .. futures .. its not stable man .. didnt Trump say the US economy  was the best its ever been 🙂 

You're so funny. I'm part of some Facebook groups with actual guys who use to work for Kodak, they said this means nothing to them, period. Remember, this has happened many times before, nothing new to see here. 

[Robin R Probyn]

5 hours ago, Tyler Purcell said:

You're so funny. I'm part of some Facebook groups with actual guys who use to work for Kodak, they said this means nothing to them, period. Remember, this has happened many times before, nothing new to see here. 

Your so funny saying silver has very stable price ,then saying this huge volatility happens all the time and nothing new ..,  I mean make your mind up 🙂 .. you think Kodak is going to say on Face book anything other than everything is ok .. I hope you don't take investment advise from them.. 

[David Mullen ASC]

I got a tour of Kodak at Rochester years ago and saw several train box cars in the yard.  I asked about the amount of silver they use and what they can recover from processing, etc. and the rep said that was all secret because they didn't want to effect the price of silver on the market.

[Daniel D. Teoli Jr.]

On 1/19/2021 at 12:22 AM, Raymond Zananiri said:

As Kodak is the only manufacturer of color film at the moment, there is a good chance that film could disappear in any day. I don't think more producers, planning to use film in the next few years can guarantee its survival. There are financial considerations that Kodak as a company has to face that could push it to fold altogether, such as debt, asset value, labor contracts, etc. 

My question is: is it feasible at all for a new small company to manufacture color negative? Or is the complexity of the process that high that it's impossible? 

When CDs came to market in the mid 80s they killed Vinyl within a few years and all vinyl pressing plants stopped operating. A few years later, small firms such as Classic Records and others, started pressing vinyl in small quantities for what became a "niche" market (I hope I'm not going to get in trouble for using that word 😊). Is there any chance that something like that could happen to film? If Kodak shuts down tomorrow, is film gone forever?

GD...what is wrong with the world niche?

Anything is possible. The 4.7gb inkjet printable M-discs seem to be discontinued. They were the basis of my VHS video archive. Memorex stopped making their branded 4.7GB M-disc as well. One day you wake up and boom...everything has gone to hell. 

I'm on a ton of forums. About 99% of the predictions end up being wrong. So 'predictions' of cheap film do not excite me.  

Edited February 2, 2021 by Daniel D. Teoli Jr.

[Daniel D. Teoli Jr.]

Does color film even have much silver in it? I'm thinking it is mostly dyes as opposed to BW film. 

Edited February 2, 2021 by Daniel D. Teoli Jr.

[Tyler Purcell]

10 hours ago, Robin R Probyn said:

Your so funny saying silver has very stable price ,then saying this huge volatility happens all the time and nothing new ..,  I mean make your mind up 🙂 .. you think Kodak is going to say on Face book anything other than everything is ok .. I hope you don't take investment advise from them.. 

I even clarified in my post that prices changes during recessions. WERE IN THE MIDDLE OF A RECESSION!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!1

 

[Robin R Probyn]

9 hours ago, David Mullen ASC said:

I got a tour of Kodak at Rochester years ago and saw several train box cars in the yard.  I asked about the amount of silver they use and what they can recover from processing, etc. and the rep said that was all secret because they didn't want to effect the price of silver on the market.

Well they don't have to worry about that anymore  , Tyler has clearly stated Silver is  a very stable priced commodity ... weirdly in contradiction with the worlds commodity traders ..   according to Tyler and his  mates from Kodak on FB this is not the case after all .. happy days ..  . thank god  we have Tyler and FB to put us right, yet again , on this forum  .. 

[Robin R Probyn]

2 hours ago, Tyler Purcell said:

I even clarified in my post that prices changes during recessions. WERE IN THE MIDDLE OF A RECESSION!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!1

 

Not just recessions .. as David has stated , Kodak themselves are very secretive about their silver supply / holdings  for .. drum roll... the reason thats its a volatile commodity and well known to be one ..  regardless of what your mates "who work for Kodak " are saying on FB ... institutional  traders love people like you .. they will have your shirt ..

[charles pappas]

1 hour ago, Robin R Probyn said:

Not just recessions .. as David has stated , Kodak themselves are very secretive about their silver supply / holdings  for .. drum roll... the reason thats its a volatile commodity and well known to be one ..  regardless of what your mates "who work for Kodak " are saying on FB ... institutional  traders love people like you .. they will have your shirt ..

 

10 hours ago, David Mullen ASC said:

I got a tour of Kodak at Rochester years ago and saw several train box cars in the yard.  I asked about the amount of silver they use and what they can recover from processing, etc. and the rep said that was all secret because they didn't want to effect the price of silver on the market.

Why in the world would Kodak want to divulge any information that could possibly affect the price of silver, even if they were, as I suspect they are, so well hedged with long term fixed -price contracts and call options that the spot price of silver is immaterial to them?  Why potentially stress-out suppliers lower down the chain and why potentially open themselves up to lawsuits from speculators? 

[Robin R Probyn]

1 hour ago, charles pappas said:

 

Why in the world would Kodak want to divulge any information that could possibly affect the price of silver, even if they were, as I suspect they are, so well hedged with long term fixed -price contracts and call options that the spot price of silver is immaterial to them?  Why potentially stress-out suppliers lower down the chain and why potentially open themselves up to lawsuits from speculators? 

no one is saying they should though .. my point is Silver is a commodity and pretty volatile one .. luckily the forum metals expert has corrected me .. and I have alerted Mitsui Bank commodities trading desk to the error of their ways too... so Kodak and the one of the worlds biggest banks have been saved through the amazing largesse of a forum member .. 

Edited February 3, 2021 by Robin R Probyn
spelling

[Tyler Purcell]

6 hours ago, Robin R Probyn said:

Not just recessions .. as David has stated , Kodak themselves are very secretive about their silver supply / holdings  for .. drum roll... the reason thats its a volatile commodity and well known to be one ..  regardless of what your mates "who work for Kodak " are saying on FB ... institutional  traders love people like you .. they will have your shirt ..

But that's not my point. You said that silver is volatile, but it's not outside of recessions. It follows inflation nearly perfectly outside of recessions. Again, my guy who use to work at Kodak said there are no issues with silver. Also remember, there is far less silver retention then there was during the days of making prints. 

Edited February 3, 2021 by Tyler Purcell

[Stuart Brereton]

13 hours ago, Daniel D. Teoli Jr. said:

GD...what is wrong with the word niche?

It’s a trigger word for some people here, Daniel. It causes all kinds of incoherent rants.

😉

[Robin R Probyn]

2 hours ago, Tyler Purcell said:

But that's not my point. You said that silver is volatile, but it's not outside of recessions. It follows inflation nearly perfectly outside of recessions. Again, my guy who use to work at Kodak said there are no issues with silver. Also remember, there is far less silver retention then there was during the days of making prints. 

  you are wrong .. its not the end of the world .. its ok to be wrong .. embrace it and move forward .. if the price of silver is not a concern to Kodak how come they wouldn't tell a well known DP , a user of their product, any information , and in fact they stated the  exact opposite .. its a secret as they are worried about prices .. this wasn't recently either .. of course  the price of silver is very important to Kodak ,thats just common sense .. for the love god just google the damn thing.. 

From Forbes 10 year analysis 

Silver has had its fair share of volatility in the last 10 years, with prices ranging from $14/ounce to $50/ounce between 2009 and 2018.

Edited February 3, 2021 by Robin R Probyn

[Tyler Purcell]

16 hours ago, Robin R Probyn said:

for the love god just google the damn thing.. 

Bro, I have been buying silver for years. Find the nearest exit and don't let the door hit you in the ass on the way out. 

[Stuart Brereton]

6 hours ago, Tyler Purcell said:

Find the nearest exit and don't let the door hit you in the ass on the way out. 

I’d much rather have Robin’s contributions than your incessant lies. It should be you that finds the exit.