Karim D. Ghantous Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 Right now, if you look at film prices, film isn't getting any cheaper. Some types of film are still affordable, at least for still photography, but the prices aren't exactly coming down. This is the opposite of digital where every year we get more value for our dollar. However, I have a hypothesis that states that film will actually become cheaper in the future. It has to do with the price of silver and the emergence of cryptocurrencies as an asset class which will flip precious metals in the medium term. 2020 was a very important year for crypto. It saw very significant institutional adoption. Not that institutions didn't hold crypto before, but now it has ramped up by a large margin. Several corporations hold millions and millions and millions of dollars worth of crypto. At the moment it's mainly Bitcoin and Ether, but it won't be this way for long. Eventually you are going to see institutions purchase large sums of other coins. But that is just one half of the equation. If institutions are spending millions on crypto, then what are they not buying? Precious metals. Make no mistake: gold in particular will never be dirt cheap. But, I do foresee the market capitalisation of gold come down in the next few years, to the point where the market cap of Bitcoin alone will flip it. Right now I have no solid data, but we have seen a slight downtrend in the price of gold for the past six months. This is not proof of anything, but some would say that we should expect to see gold well over $2,000/oz by now. Interestingly enough, the price of silver has been more or less steady for the past six months, being centred at around $25/oz. I have no financial or economic background so I can't fathom why this is. I do know that there are many types of buyers for precious metals. Industrial buyers like Kodak are one class. Investors are another class entirely, and if investors more away from precious metals and towards digital assets, then it is logical to conclude that the prices of precious metals will decline eventually. I can speak only for myself, and I have no interest in buying precious metals for my portfolio, as modest as it currently is. I have put my spare cash into crypto, and some play money into shares. Some people would go the other way, but crypto has already proven itself as an asset class. In fact I see it as a superior asset class to almost everything else. Give me a million bucks and I will spend 90% of it on crypto assets and 10% on shares. I will buy no precious metals, real estate or bonds. And so, if I'm correct, the price of silver will decrease significantly as investors transfer their wealth to crypto. And because of that, the price of film stocks will come down. This price reduction could spur further adoption of film in still and motion capture, which will reduce the price slightly again. There are other factors which could affect film prices either way, such as the availability of other raw materials. For example, Fuji is stopping production of Fujicolor 400H simply because they can't obtain a particular ingredient. I'm sure you all heard that news recently. And who foresaw the events of the past 12 months? I sure didn't. So time will tell if I am right or not. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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